21深度｜彷徨的美联储：“双重使命”困境难解，“滞胀”过后难逃“衰退”？

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. economy is facing greater shocks due to the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," leading to concerns about rising prices and consumer sentiment [2][3] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with companies adopting a more conservative approach amid policy uncertainty, while inflation expectations continue to rise [2][3] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 52.2 in April, with one-year inflation expectations increasing from 5.0% in March to 6.5% [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is caught in a "dual mandate" dilemma, struggling to balance between supporting employment and controlling inflation due to the adverse effects of tariffs [8][9] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need for more data before making any preemptive rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][8] - The Fed's current policy rate remains restrictive, and any potential rate cuts will depend on the impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation expectations [9][10] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the U.S. economy may transition from "stagflation" to "recession" in the coming quarters, with key economic indicators showing signs of weakness [11] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. government policies and tariffs is eroding market confidence in the long-term economic outlook [6][11] - The potential for a recession is heightened if policy uncertainty continues to suppress economic growth in the second quarter [3][11]