无惧特朗普干扰 美联储不降息

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate change since January and March [1][3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates and will not use early rate cuts to address economic downturn risks [1][3] - Powell noted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Trump administration's new policies on the economy, stating that inflation effects could be temporary or more persistent [4][6] Group 2 - The U.S. economy's "hard data" remains robust, providing the Fed with more time for observation and assessment, despite a reported GDP contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025, the worst performance since 2022 [5][6] - The U.S. trade deficit has surged, with a record $140.5 billion deficit in March, contributing to a significant drag on GDP [5] - Consumer sentiment has declined, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index falling to 52.5, the lowest since August 2022 [5] Group 3 - The job market remains stable, with 177,000 new jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, alleviating some economic concerns [6] - Analysts predict that the Fed may cut rates later in the year, with July and September seen as potential meeting points for a 25 basis point reduction [7][8] - The divergence in monetary policy responses is evident, as the Fed maintains its stance while other central banks, like the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, have opted for rate cuts [8]