美联储或将于下半年恢复降息

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking a continuation of the previous decisions from January and March [1] - The Fed's current stance reflects a wait-and-see approach amid high uncertainty, with potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][4] - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to show a slow downward trend, with the overall PCE price index increasing by 2.3% year-on-year in March, approaching the 2% target [1][2] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the decline in U.S. inflation include a significant drop in oil prices, which have decreased by approximately 20% this year, and a steady decline in housing inflation [2] - Wage growth is continuing to slow, which impacts service inflation, and the overall inflation is influenced by various factors including tariffs and consumer behavior [2] - The U.S. economy experienced a 0.3% decline in GDP in the first quarter, primarily due to increased imports and reduced government spending, but a rebound is expected in the second quarter [3] Group 3 - Employment data remains stable, with an average of 155,000 non-farm jobs added over the past three months and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [3] - The manufacturing PMI index shows resilience, particularly in the service sector, which continues to expand [3] - The introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a significant reduction in cargo traffic at U.S. ports, affecting hiring practices among U.S. companies [4]