Amazon Issues Mixed Q2 Guidance: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Financial Performance - Amazon reported Q1 2025 earnings of $1.59 per share, exceeding estimates by 17.78% and showing a year-over-year increase of 40.7% [1] - Net sales for the quarter reached $155.7 billion, a 9% increase from the previous year, slightly above expectations [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 net sales is $693.74 billion, indicating an 8.74% growth from the prior year [2] Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, Amazon expects net sales between $159.0 billion and $164.0 billion, representing a growth of 7-11% compared to Q2 2024 [1] - The company's operating income guidance for Q2 is between $13.0 billion and $17.5 billion, which is below the market expectation of $17.7 billion, leading to a 5% drop in after-hours trading [1] Market Challenges - The cautious second-quarter guidance is attributed to uncertainties surrounding tariffs on Chinese imports, affecting pricing strategies and consumer demand [6] - Despite these challenges, management noted that they have not yet observed a decline in demand, with some categories experiencing increased buying [6] Business Segments Performance - Amazon Web Services (AWS) continues to show strong growth, with a 17% year-over-year increase, reaching a $117 billion annualized revenue run rate [8] - AWS operating income rose 23% to $11.5 billion, with operating margins of 39.5% [8] - Advertising services also performed well, growing 19% year-over-year to $13.9 billion, showcasing Amazon's ability to monetize its consumer base [9] AI Investments - Amazon's investments in artificial intelligence (AI) are accelerating, with the AI business achieving a multi-billion dollar annual revenue run rate and triple-digit percentage growth year-over-year [11] - The company has introduced new AI models and expanded access to its Nova foundation models, positioning itself competitively in the AI space [12][13] Competitive Landscape - Competition in the AI sector is intensifying, with advancements from major tech companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Google [14] - Amazon's stock has underperformed year-to-date, declining 12.9%, compared to the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and S&P 500 [15] Valuation Concerns - Amazon's forward 12-month Price-to-Sales ratio is 2.79X, significantly higher than the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry average of 1.86X, raising questions about near-term upside potential [19] - Free cash flow has decreased to $25.9 billion for the trailing 12 months, down from $50.1 billion the previous year, reflecting aggressive capital investments [20][21] Investment Perspective - Maintaining positions in Amazon shares is considered prudent for current investors due to the company's long-term growth trajectory and leadership in cloud computing [24] - Prospective investors may consider waiting for a better entry point, especially with tariff concerns potentially causing volatility [24][25]