催买房失效后，楼市或面临4个断崖式改变，无房人高兴了

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a noticeable decline in buyer interest and confidence, leading to a stagnation in transactions [1][4][15] - Despite aggressive policy measures aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering down payment ratios and interest rates, the effectiveness has been limited, with new loans dropping to only 4% of pre-pandemic levels [3][15] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is facing a "stampede-style sell-off," with listings reaching 190 million nationwide, indicating a surplus of available properties [9][10] - There is a stark contrast in property performance, with high-demand new developments selling out quickly while older properties see significant price drops, highlighting a "class division" in the housing market [11][12] - The introduction of new regulations has rendered older homes less desirable, as buyers prefer properties that meet updated standards, leading to a depreciation in value for older units [12][13] Group 2: Economic Factors - The income growth for urban residents is projected to be only 3.2% in 2024, while mortgage rates peaked at 5.8% in recent years, creating a mismatch between income and housing costs [7] - The market is witnessing a shift towards affordable housing options, with 317 million units of affordable housing being established, providing alternatives for first-time buyers [16] - The demographic of potential homebuyers is shrinking, with the eligible population decreasing from 25 million to 15 million, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [14]