鲁西化工(000830)：产能建设稳步推进 公司业绩具备韧性

Core Viewpoint - The company's capacity construction is steadily advancing, and refined management along with energy-saving measures are continuously enhancing, indicating resilience in the company's performance [1] Investment Highlights - The rating is maintained at "Buy". Due to external environmental impacts on the prices of some chemical products, the EPS for 2025-2026 is revised down to 0.97/1.31 yuan (previously 1.19/1.4 yuan), with a new EPS for 2027 set at 1.36 yuan. Based on comparable company valuations and considering the company's growth potential, a 13x PE valuation for 2025 is given, corresponding to a target price of 12.61 yuan [2] - In 2024, the company's performance is expected to grow by 147.79% year-on-year. The projected revenue is 29.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.37%; net profit attributable to shareholders is 2.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.79%; and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items is 1.962 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.90%. For Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be 8.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.57%; net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.46% [2] - In 2024, revenue growth for various product categories is projected as follows: new chemical materials +26.83%, basic chemical products -7.41%, fertilizers +17.85%, and other products +21.84%. Gross profit margins are expected to change as follows: +1.36 percentage points, +2.68 percentage points, -1.41 percentage points, and +2.73 percentage points respectively [2] Performance Resilience - In Q1 2025, the company demonstrated resilience with revenue of 7.290 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.96% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.92%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 413 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.30% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.04%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 384 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.81% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.40%. The primary reason for the decline was the drop in prices of some chemical products, which fell more than the decrease in raw material procurement prices [3] - The company is steadily advancing its capacity construction, with refined management and energy-saving measures continuously enhancing operations. In 2024, production facilities are expected to operate safely and stably, with successful full-load operation of the caprolactam and nylon 6 phase I project, smooth integration of the silicone project, and orderly progress of the ethylene downstream integration project and 150,000 tons of propionic acid project [3] - The equipment manufacturing business is deeply integrating resources and promoting market-oriented operations of the Luxi Engineering Company, transitioning from serving Luxi to serving Sinochem. The company is expanding exports of new energy equipment and promoting capacity expansion and efficiency improvement [3] - The main raw materials for the company's chemical products include coal, propylene, pure benzene, and methanol. The company focuses on stable cooperation with large state-owned producers to secure channels and strive for price advantages, while also leveraging the proximity of local refining enterprises for cost-effective procurement [3]