Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-09 02:06Core Viewpoint - The report "China Energy Outlook 2060 (2024 Edition)" provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of China's energy development, emphasizing the transition towards renewable energy and the optimization of energy consumption amidst economic recovery and structural changes in the industry [1][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - China's economic development is experiencing fluctuations but maintains a long-term positive trend, with an accelerated optimization of industrial structure and a steady improvement in energy consumption efficiency [20][24]. - The population has entered a phase of negative growth, but urbanization and aging are driving the electrification and intelligent transformation of energy consumption [30][31]. - Technological advancements are focused on renewable energy alternatives, electrification, and clean utilization, with significant support from key mineral resources and CCUS technology [34][35]. - The policy framework is increasingly systematic and sustainable, promoting the growth of renewable energy consumption while ensuring energy security [20][12]. Group 2: Energy Supply and Demand Outlook - Primary energy consumption is expected to peak between 2030 and 2035 at over 626 million tons of standard coal, then decline to 570-578 million tons by 2060, with non-fossil energy accounting for 80% of the total [2][13]. - Coal consumption is projected to peak at 437 million tons around 2025, decreasing to 38 million tons by 2060, while oil consumption is expected to peak at around 80 million tons during the 14th Five-Year Plan, dropping to 28 million tons by 2060 [14][15]. - Natural gas consumption is anticipated to peak around 2040 at 610 billion cubic meters, then decline to 400 billion cubic meters by 2060, with its role as a transitional energy source being crucial [15][14]. - Non-fossil energy supply is expected to grow rapidly, reaching 454 million tons of standard coal by 2060, with solar and wind energy contributing significantly [15][13]. Group 3: Energy Transition Recommendations - The energy transition is entering a new phase of deceleration and adjustment, necessitating the acceleration of key technology research and the improvement of energy statistics and carbon emission management systems [3][10]. - The report highlights the need to clarify critical issues in exploring energy transition pathways, as the window for exploration is narrowing [3][10].