Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2025-05-09 02:13Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the increase in EIA crude oil inventories and OPEC+'s announcement to accelerate production by 411,000 barrels per day in June has led to a decline in international oil prices. The interplay between OPEC+'s production increase and the downward revision of global demand growth expectations suggests that Brent crude oil prices may stabilize in the range of $65-75 per barrel and WTI prices in the range of $60-70 per barrel by 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Review - In April, the average price of Brent crude futures was $66.5 per barrel, a decrease of $5.0 per barrel month-on-month, closing at $63.1 per barrel at the end of the month. WTI crude futures averaged $62.9 per barrel, also down by $5.0 per barrel, closing at $58.2 per barrel [1]. - The decline in oil prices in April was influenced by the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" in the U.S., raising concerns about economic recession and energy demand, alongside OPEC+'s announcement to accelerate production [1]. - Following a temporary pause in the "reciprocal tariff" policy and new sanctions on Iran, international oil prices experienced fluctuations, but ultimately fell again due to increased EIA crude oil inventories and OPEC+'s production plans [1]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ has announced an unexpected increase in production for May and June, with the production increase for May set at 411,000 barrels per day, which is three times the original plan [2]. - The 38th OPEC+ ministerial meeting in December 2024 will decide on extending collective and voluntary production cuts until the end of 2026, with a gradual restoration of production starting from April 2025 [2]. Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - Due to the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, major international energy agencies have revised down the expected growth in crude oil demand for 2025 to between 730,000 and 1.3 million barrels per day [3]. - The latest reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA indicate that crude oil demand for 2024 is projected at approximately 102.74 to 103.75 million barrels per day, with a modest increase from 2023 [3]. - For 2025, crude oil demand is expected to be around 103.52 to 105.05 million barrels per day, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to previous estimates [3].