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三元股份(600429):夯实基础 深化“乳品+”布局 轻装再启航

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for FY 2024, but showed significant improvement in non-recurring net profit, indicating a potential recovery path for FY 2025 [1][5]. Financial Performance - FY 2024 revenue was 7.012 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 55 million yuan, down 77.4%; non-recurring net profit was 30 million yuan, up 934.2% [1]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 1.620 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was -49 million yuan, down 518.2%; non-recurring net profit was -41 million yuan, down 83.2% [1]. - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.647 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 88 million yuan, up 20.9%; non-recurring net profit was 83 million yuan, up 22.6% [1]. Product Performance - In FY 2024, revenue from liquid milk, solid milk, ice cream, and others was 4.411 billion, 963 million, 1.499 billion yuan, respectively, with changes of -8.8%, +3.5%, and -11.7% year-on-year [2]. - Q4 2024 revenue from liquid milk, solid milk, ice cream, and others was 1.052 billion, 288 million, 218 million yuan, with changes of -12.9%, +31.9%, and -6.5% year-on-year [2]. - Q1 2025 revenue from liquid milk, solid milk, ice cream, and others was 1.024 billion, 213 million, 360 million yuan, with changes of -15.2%, -13.3%, and -35.9% year-on-year [2]. Sales Model - In FY 2024, revenue from direct sales, distributors, and others was 2.243 billion, 3.840 billion, and 790 million yuan, with changes of -18.4%, -5.8%, and -8.2% year-on-year [3]. - Q4 2024 revenue from direct sales, distributors, and others was 592 million, 919 million, and 471 million yuan, with changes of -26.0%, +38.7%, and -73.7% year-on-year [3]. - Q1 2025 revenue from direct sales, distributors, and others was 595 million, 792 million, and 209 million yuan, with changes of -7.2%, -31.7%, and -1.3% year-on-year [3]. Regional Performance - In FY 2024, revenue from Beijing and outside Beijing was 3.436 billion and 3.437 billion yuan, with changes of -28.8% and +20.2% year-on-year [3]. - Q4 2024 revenue from Beijing and outside Beijing was 766 million and 791 million yuan, with changes of -22.5% and +21.3% year-on-year [3]. - Q1 2025 revenue from Beijing and outside Beijing was 779 million and 818 million yuan, with changes of -40.3% and +15.5% year-on-year [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its "fresh" strategy from Beijing to key regions nationwide, with a reported sales increase of 341% for low-temperature products [4]. - The company is optimizing its product structure, reducing costs, and focusing on high-margin products, leading to a ninefold increase in non-recurring net profit [5]. - The company is implementing a "dairy+" strategy, expanding its product matrix and entering new markets such as tea and coffee [9]. Organizational Efficiency - The company has streamlined its organizational structure, reducing headquarters departments from 21 to 14 and cutting personnel by 46% to enhance management efficiency [8]. - The company is investing in digital transformation across core business areas to improve operational capabilities [8]. Investment Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of 7.19 billion and 7.35 billion yuan, and net profits of 860 million and 1.05 billion yuan for the same period [10].