Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the sixth consecutive time, despite pressure from President Trump for a rate cut following strong April non-farm payroll data [1][2] - April non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly exceeding the expected 133,000, although March data was revised down from 228,000 to 185,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 58,000 jobs over the past two months [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings rising by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1] Group 2 - Despite Trump's calls for rate cuts, Federal Reserve officials emphasize that combating inflation remains the top priority, with Powell stating he will not yield to political pressure [2] - Market expectations indicate a 97.2% probability of no rate change in May, with the forecast for rate cuts in 2023 reduced from four to three, and the first potential cut now pushed to July [2] - The job market shows significant sectoral divergence, with healthcare (+64,000) and transportation and warehousing (+29,000) sectors expanding, while manufacturing continues to decline, experiencing the largest output drop since 2020 [2] Group 3 - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 achieving its longest nine-day winning streak since 2004, while the dollar index surpassed the 100 mark and gold prices fell by 2% over the week [3] - The futures market has adjusted its expectations for rate cuts, reducing the number of anticipated cuts to four for the year, a significant decrease from earlier aggressive predictions [3] - Powell's ability to balance "data resilience" with "political pressure" and maintain policy independence amid inflation risks from tariffs will be crucial for reshaping global market dynamics [3]
BCR聚焦国际金融热点： 缩表减速VS通胀顽固：美联储利率 决议如同走钢丝
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-09 02:40