三大宏观引擎火力全开，哪些品种将迎流畅行情？

Group 1: Macroeconomic Drivers - The article discusses three macroeconomic drivers impacting the market: geopolitical tensions, domestic support policies, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance [2][5][7] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened due to conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and India-Pakistan, which may affect global oil supply [3] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting June, which could influence oil prices amidst geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 2: Domestic Financial Policies - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced in China, focusing on "total easing + structural optimization + expectation management" to support economic development [5] - The policy includes a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and targeted support for small and medium enterprises [5] - Additional measures include lowering housing loan rates and increasing funding for technology innovation and consumer services [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate cuts, while expressing concerns over economic uncertainties [7] - The Fed's cautious stance reflects a shift towards balancing risks, with market expectations for rate cuts being pushed to July [7] - Current probabilities indicate an 80.2% chance of maintaining rates in June and a 59.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [7] Group 4: Market Trading Logic - Oil prices are under pressure from OPEC+ production increases and economic uncertainties, yet geopolitical disturbances support bullish sentiment in the oil market [9] - The article suggests monitoring the inflow of short positions into fundamentally weak commodities following the implementation of supportive policies [9]