Fundamental Analysis - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 3 was reported at 228,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000 and down from the previous value of 241,000, indicating a relatively robust labor market [1] - The decline in jobless claims suggests that the employment market has not deteriorated significantly, which may strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, thereby supporting the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold priced in dollars [1] - The resilience of the labor market may reduce investor concerns about an economic recession, lowering safe-haven demand and further suppressing the upward potential of gold prices [1] Trade Agreement Insights - The trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. retains a 10% baseline tariff on the U.K. while expanding market access and eliminating tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum, which may alleviate trade friction and reduce cost pressures in related industries [2] - The cancellation of steel and aluminum tariffs could boost industrial metal demand, although its direct impact on gold is limited as gold is primarily viewed as a safe-haven asset rather than an industrial commodity [2] - The zero-tariff provision on U.S. agricultural products to the U.K. may enhance U.S. agricultural exports to the U.K., potentially improving the U.S. trade balance, which could lead to a stronger dollar and short-term pressure on gold as a dollar-denominated asset [2] - The agreement's expansion of market access may further promote bilateral trade and enhance market risk appetite, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a short-term rebound to around 3437.8 before gradually retreating, with the Federal Reserve's inaction contributing to weak bullish momentum and significant short-term price pressure [4] - The moving averages MA20 and MA60 are in a bearish arrangement, indicating a current bearish trend for prices, with a key resistance level at approximately 3323.7 [4] - The CCI indicator is near the oversold zone and is turning downward, suggesting the possibility of further price declines [4] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to short near 3323.7 with a stop loss at 3331.0 and targets at 3262.9 and 3223.4 [2][4] Silver Analysis - Silver prices have been on a downward trend after retreating from recent highs, with the moving average system indicating a strong bearish sentiment and weak bullish momentum [6] - A key resistance level is identified at approximately 32.52, which aligns with the MA20 pressure point [6] - The CCI indicator has crossed below the oversold zone, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend [6] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to short near 32.52 with a stop loss at 32.72 and targets at 32.09 and 31.92 [5][6]
领峰金评：初请数据亮剑 黄金应声下挫
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-09 03:43