新凤鸣(603225)：盈利保持稳健 看好长丝供给格局改善

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated stable growth in 2024 with a revenue of 67.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, up 1.32% year-on-year, indicating resilience in its financial performance despite challenges in demand [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 67.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, up 1.32% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 306 million yuan, up 11.35% year-on-year [1] - The company’s non-recurring net profit for Q1 2025 was 260 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.13% [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - In 2024, the company produced 5.18 million tons of POY, 1.52 million tons of FDY, 830 thousand tons of DTY, and 1.27 million tons of polyester short fibers, with production growth of 11% and 8% for long and short fibers respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, the production figures for POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester short fibers were 1.3 million tons, 400 thousand tons, 250 thousand tons, and 320 thousand tons, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 10%, 30%, and 4% respectively [1] - However, the sales volume for long fibers decreased, primarily due to end-user demand, with sales figures for Q1 2025 showing declines for POY and FDY by 10% and 17% respectively [1] Group 3: Pricing and Cost Structure - The average selling prices for major products in 2024 were 6,670 yuan/ton for POY, 7,527 yuan/ton for FDY, 8,801 yuan/ton for DTY, and 6,559 yuan/ton for polyester short fibers, with a decline in prices noted in Q1 2025 [2] - The company benefited from a decrease in raw material prices, with PTA and PX prices dropping by 15.49% and 15.67% respectively, which helped maintain profit margins despite falling product prices [2] Group 4: Capacity and Market Position - The company currently has a production capacity of 8.05 million tons for civil polyester long fibers and 1.2 million tons for polyester short fibers, ranking second in the domestic market for civil polyester long fibers [2] - The company is expected to add 400 thousand tons of new long fiber capacity in the second half of 2025, enhancing its competitive position [2] - The industry is projected to see a marginal increase in effective capacity due to the expected elimination of 200-250 thousand tons of capacity between 2024 and 2025, benefiting leading companies like the one in focus [3]