HONGLU(SZ:002541) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-09 06:38Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit due to weak downstream demand and falling steel prices, but it maintains a strong market position and is expected to recover in the coming years [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million yuan, a decrease of 32.8% [1]. - The company signed new orders worth 7.05 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with steel structure production reaching 1.049 million tons, up 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company's full-year revenue for 2024 is projected to be 21.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.6%, with a net profit of 772 million yuan, down 34.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Market Conditions - The company’s new orders for 2024 are expected to be 28.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, with steel structure production at 4.511 million tons, a slight increase of 0.5% [2]. - The average price of section steel in 2024 is projected to be 3,814 yuan per ton, down 298 yuan from the previous year, while the cost per ton of steel structure is 4,277 yuan, down 384 yuan [2]. Profitability - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 10.33%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to declining steel prices and increased inventory costs [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 570 million yuan, a decrease of 47.8% year-on-year, indicating slower collection from customers [2]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast and an "outperform" rating, citing its strong market position and ongoing investments in automation to reduce costs [3]. - The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 930 million, 1.02 billion, and 1.14 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.1, 12.9, and 11.5 [3].