建筑装饰行业周报 市场调整之际，板块内哪些确定性机会 值得把握 2026 年 03 月 22 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王翩翩 证书编号：S1160524060001 证券分析师：郁晾 证书编号：S1160524100004 证券分析师：闫广 证书编号：S1160526010004 联系人：陈怡洁 相对指数表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025/3 2025/9 2026/3 建筑装饰 沪深300 相关研究 《继续推荐大建筑股：低位新基建，全球 中特估》 2026.03.15 《两会及"十五五"规划定调积极，继续 推荐央企及新兴支柱产业标的》 2026.03.08 《两会政府工作报告学习：中央定调积极， 关注未来产业和智能建造》 2026.03.06 《上海放松地产限购政策，关注两会可能 的稳增长及新质生产力政策》 2026.03.01 《节后关注机器人、低空、AI 算力等未来 产业及建筑央企低位修复机会》 2026.02.23 行 业 研 究 / 建 筑 装 饰 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 板块行情回顾：本周建筑装饰（S ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 22 年 月 日 建筑装饰 北方国际："煤价/电价/战后重建"三重逻辑共振，基本面预计迎改善拐 点。1）煤价方面，近期中东战事扰动下油价飙升，煤价作为替代能源价格 有望显著上行，焦煤主连最新（（3/20）夜盘大涨 8.73%。年初以来蒙煤价 格稳步上行，均价 1030 元/吨（同增 14%）；最新价 1080 元/吨，同增 26%。公司 25 年受煤价回落影响，业绩有所承压，今年一季度受益价格 回暖，叠加成本端根据长协约定按 25Q4 价格核算，焦煤业务单吨毛利有 望明显改善，驱动整体业绩修复。2）电价方面，欧洲 4 月天然气期货价 已较战事爆发前上涨逾一倍，预计将带动区域电价上行（天然气约占欧洲 发电用能源 20%）。公司持有克罗地亚风电项目，2025 全年发电量 4.22 亿度，后续随电价上涨预计展现较大盈利弹性（2022 年欧洲能源紧缺带 动项目整体归母净利大幅增至 3.6 亿）。3）战后重建方面，公司在伊朗、 阿联酋等中东国家有较多项目经验，大股东北方工业是们国最大军贸公 司，在全球拥有较强渠道资源。若中东局势缓和，区域战后重建将带 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 22 年 月 日 建筑装饰 一季报业绩预期较好的建筑公司有哪些？ 洁净室板块：AI CAPEX 扩张带动洁净室需求增长，板块业绩预计在低基 数上高增。去年以来多家海外龙头披露业绩超预期，台积电、美光陆续上 调 26 年资本开支，持续验证下游 AI 产能扩张趋势，洁净室作为前端基建 环节（占总投资约 15%），需求有望同步放量，区域上看：1）境内：2025 年受关税等事件影响，半导体企业资本开支节奏有所放缓，相关洁净室龙 头收入明显承压（深桑达 A/柏诚股份 25Q1 收入分别同降 18%/9%），今 年起随着扩产项目推进逐步恢复，板块营收增长有望显著提速，叠加毛利 率趋于稳定（柏诚股份三季报毛利率已实现探底回升），预计龙头一季度 业绩将呈现较快增长。需求端看，"十五五"规划明确提出加快培育自主可 控、协同运行的软硬件生态，预计带动芯片国产化进一步提速，龙头研发 投入及资本开支有望持续增长。2）海外：新加坡、马来西亚等东南亚国家 依托劳动力成本、产业集群等优势加速承接半导体产业链转移，为大陆龙 头出海提供丰富业务机会。去年起各龙头加大出海开拓 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 优化支出结构，新兴领域投资发力 2026年建筑装饰行业春季投资策略 证券分析师：袁豪 A0230520120001 唐猛 A0230523080003 研究支持： 唐猛 A0230523080003 联系人： 唐猛 A0230523080003 2026.3.19 要点：优化支出结构，新兴领域投资发力 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 2026年作为"十五五"起始之年，承上启下作用凸显，年度财政资金依然保持一定强度， 同时强调严肃财经纪律，强化预算约束，激发各经营主体活力也成为时下重点任务之一，国 企改革、发展壮大民营经济以及积极营造一流营商环境必要性提高。 ◼ 十五五开局，建筑谋定新基建、区域协调、走出去。总量维稳的背景下，部分子板块有望随 国家战略推进而提升自身景气度，"十五五"规划中对建筑板块要求谋定走出去、区域协调、 新基建。钢结构市场内外需求共振，当前已进入布局窗口期；同时国网、南网"十五五"投 资规划积极，有望带动电力产业链整体发展机遇；地缘冲突事件拉高资源品价格，"富煤贫 油少气"的背景下我国煤化工推进节奏预计加快；以AIDC为代表的尖端科技有 ...

Group 1: Bond Investment Strategy - The report highlights a transition in bond investment strategy towards a "sell on every rise" approach, driven by asset allocation rebalancing and the current weak position of bond assets compared to equities [9][10] - The economic outlook for 2026 is characterized as a "non-typical recovery" period, with a focus on nominal growth recovery, fiscal spending structure, and inflation trends as key indicators for the bond market [9][10] - The report suggests that the 10-year government bond yield may range between 1.77% and 1.95%, with a potential upward breakout above 1.9% [9][10] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Strategy - High dividend assets are expected to remain attractive in 2026, with historical performance indicating that sectors with dividend yields above 3% generally provide absolute returns during periods of RMB appreciation [12][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sectors, particularly discretionary consumption, which tends to outperform during inflationary periods, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas [12][10] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is anticipated to benefit from RMB appreciation, with a focus on companies that possess unique ecological positions and infrastructure capabilities [12][10] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Strategy - The U.S. stock market is projected to have limited valuation upside due to geopolitical uncertainties and a shift from light to heavy asset investments, with capital expenditures expected to broaden beyond technology giants [11][13] - The report notes that the S&P 500 index is expected to see stable earnings growth of around 16%, with current valuations at approximately the 70th percentile historically [11][13] - AI investments are highlighted as having potential in upstream and midstream sectors, with opportunities for alpha generation in the value chain [11][13] Group 4: Future Industries - The report discusses significant advancements in future industries, including quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and brain-machine interfaces, indicating a strong trend towards commercialization and technological breakthroughs [15][16] - The approval of the first invasive brain-machine interface for clinical use marks a significant milestone in the industry, reflecting increased investment and interest in this area [15][16] - The report outlines the importance of hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, with China joining the "Triple Nuclear Declaration" to enhance global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][26]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment growth stabilized in January-February 2026, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.8%, which is a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared to the full year of 2025. Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, up by 2.5 percentage points from 2025 [4][11]. - Infrastructure investment, under a new calculation method, showed a year-on-year increase of 11.4% in January-February 2026. Key sectors included transportation, storage, and postal services with a 9.1% increase, water, environment, and public facilities management with an 8.3% increase, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply with a 13.1% increase [5][11]. - Real estate investment remained low, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% in January-February 2026, and construction starts and completions also showed significant declines [11][16]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment in January-February 2026 was 1.8%, reflecting a stabilization compared to the previous year [4]. - Manufacturing investment increased by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with significant contributions from various sectors [5]. - The eastern and central regions showed modest growth, while the western and northeastern regions experienced declines [5]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, with construction starts down by 23.1% and completions down by 27.9% [11]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in real estate investment due to supply-side challenges [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cyclical sectors that are expected to benefit from the recovery, particularly in steel structure and chemical engineering [16]. - It highlights specific companies such as Honglu Steel Structure, China Chemical, and others as potential investment opportunities [16].

Group 1: Market Performance - The construction index increased by 4.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by only 0.19%, resulting in a 3.93 percentage point lead for the construction sector[5] - Notable individual stock performances included China Energy Construction (+21%), Ningbo Construction (+20%), and China Electric Power (+16%) during the week[5] Group 2: Chemical Industry Insights - The most significant profit recovery potential is seen in propanol, followed by coal-based ethylene glycol, with caprolactam and polyester filament also benefiting from price increases[6] - Caprolactam's price has risen from a low of less than 2000 RMB/ton to 3894 RMB/ton, indicating a substantial recovery potential[7] - The price of propanol has surged by 60% from 5200 RMB/ton to 8300 RMB/ton, with costs rising only by 780 RMB/ton, favoring profit margins[11] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on the construction and chemical sectors is advised, particularly for companies benefiting from both engineering and industrial segments, such as China Chemical and Three-Dimensional Chemical[5] - The report recommends investing in steel structure leader Honglu Steel Construction, anticipating a positive impact from infrastructure investment recovery[24] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected declines in infrastructure and real estate investments, which could elevate macroeconomic pressures[27] - Price increases and order fulfillment may not meet expectations, impacting revenue and profit conversion rates[27]

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2026-022 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于为子公司担保事项的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、对外担保情况概述 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称：公司或本公司）于 2025 年 11 月 24 日召开第六届董事会第二十八次会议、2025 年 12 月 10 日召开 2025 第二次临时股东会，会议审议通过了《关于 2026 年度公司对子公司提供担保额 度的议案》，同意公司为安徽鸿翔建材有限公司等 17 家子公司银行融资提供担 保总额度 173.851 亿元；于 2026 年 2 月 3 日召开第六届董事会第三十三次会议、 2026 年 2 月 25 日召开 2026 第一次临时股东会，会议审议通过了《关于公司向 子公司增加担保额度的议案》，新增担保额度 6.75 亿元。综上 2026 年为子公司 担保总额度为 180.601 亿元，具体担 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" investment rating for the construction sector, particularly focusing on central enterprises and emerging pillar industries [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook from the recent Two Sessions and the "14th Five-Year Plan," suggesting that central enterprises will benefit from accelerated key projects supported by national fiscal policies [20][21]. - It identifies three categories of companies likely to benefit from these policies: 1. Central construction enterprises, which are expected to see improved cash flow and valuation recovery due to local government debt resolution efforts [20]. 2. Companies involved in underground utility tunnel construction and assessment, which will benefit from urban renewal and increased demand for property transactions [21]. 3. Participants in canal construction and high-standard farmland projects, which are expected to accelerate under the new safety and energy production capacity indicators [21]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the positive macroeconomic targets for 2026, including an expected economic growth of 4.5%-5% and a budget deficit of approximately 5.89 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year [20]. - It notes that the central government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support key construction projects [20]. Market Performance - The construction decoration index decreased by 0.70%, while the overall A-share index fell by 0.93%, indicating a relative outperformance of the construction sector [19][36]. - Specific sectors such as landscaping engineering (+7.88%) and international engineering (+1.60%) showed better performance compared to others [19]. Company Dynamics - The report tracks significant company movements, including China Energy Construction, which saw a 13.78% increase in stock price, and Huajian Group, which rose by 8.00% [36]. - It also notes that the issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a cumulative net financing of 832.4 billion yuan as of March 6, 2026, surpassing the levels of the previous two years [26]. Valuation and Investment Lines - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines for 2026: 1. Central and state-owned enterprises that are positioned for recovery and transformation [30]. 2. Companies in high-demand sectors such as excavation, civil explosives, and geotechnical engineering [31]. 3. New economy sectors including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, computing power, and AI [31].

2026 年 3 月 5 日、6 日投资者关系活动记录表 证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 编号：T2026-003 投资者关系 活动类别 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 现场参观 电话调研 □其他 调 研 时 间 / 参 与 单 位 名 称 及 人 员 姓 名 2026 年 3 月 5 日下午 14:00—16：00 中信证券 李家明、周光裕；国信证券 朱家琪；华德证券 王彬鹏、唐心怡； 西部证券 郭好格 2026 年 3 月 6 日下午 14:00—15：30 华创证券 单戈、许常捷；华夏基金 何东良；乐雪资本 陆畅宏 地 点 公司会议室 上市公司接 待人员姓名 董事会秘书吕庆荣、证券事务代表杜建俊 1、简要介绍公司近期的生产经营情况； 2、参观了公司的视频监控中心，从监控中心看到集团公司各大生产基地的 生产经营情况及鸿路智能制造专业化生产线、工业焊接机器人技术中心及 各基地工业焊接机器人应用的场景，投资者在视频中看到了钢结构产品中 各类构件正在有序焊接中； 3、回答投资者的有关问题。 主要讨论内容如下： 一、公 ...