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纪录低位处企稳 基本面能否拉氧化铝一把?
Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-05-09 12:23

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant rebound after a nearly 50% decline since early December, with recent price increases attributed to supply-side adjustments and market sentiment improvements [2][3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent reports indicate a reduction in aluminum oxide inventory, suggesting a potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics, driven by production cuts and maintenance activities in the industry [4][5]. - The supply-side disruptions include a halt in production at certain facilities due to compliance reviews and mining license issues, which have contributed to a tightening of supply and a subsequent price rebound [3][4][5]. - Despite the recent positive trends, the overall supply situation remains precarious, with excess capacity still a concern, as evidenced by the high operating rates of aluminum oxide plants [5][6]. Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for aluminum oxide remains cautious, with expectations of continued oversupply due to planned capacity expansions and the potential for resumed production from recently idled facilities [6][7]. - The industry is closely monitoring regulatory developments regarding new capacity approvals, particularly in regions like Hebei, which could impact future supply levels [3][6][7]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term sentiment may be bullish, the fundamental oversupply conditions are unlikely to change significantly in the near term, keeping upward price pressures limited [6][7].