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中环观察｜“细价盘”助推“小阳春”，年内香港楼市能否止跌回稳？
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-05-09 12:35

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a shift with a notable increase in rental prices while property prices are declining, leading to a potential "buying opportunity" for first-time homebuyers [1][2][10]. Market Trends - The private residential price index in Hong Kong dropped to 284.2 points in March 2025, down 0.49% from February and 8.2% year-on-year, marking an 8.5-year low [1]. - In contrast, the rental market is thriving, with the rental index reaching 193.3 points, and average rents increasing by over 5.5% in 2024 [1][2]. Transaction Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, the number of transactions for properties priced at 4 million HKD or below surged by approximately 346%, totaling 1,003 transactions [3][4]. - The introduction of a new stamp duty exemption for properties valued up to 400,000 HKD is expected to save buyers up to 60,000 HKD, further stimulating the market [4][5]. Developer Strategies - Developers are focusing on lower-priced properties, with the share of new developments priced at 4 million HKD or below increasing from 3.4% in 2024 to 18.2% in 2025 [4][6]. - The successful sales of new developments, such as Vanke's project in Tai Po, indicate strong market demand, with over 65 times subscription for some units [5][6]. Second-Hand Market Performance - The second-hand property market is facing a decline, with transaction volumes for the top ten estates dropping significantly, with some estates seeing declines over 50% [7][10]. - The CCL index, which reflects second-hand property prices, decreased by 0.08% in late April, indicating ongoing price pressures [12]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the second-hand market may stabilize and potentially see price increases in the latter half of 2025, driven by the absorption of lower-priced inventory and favorable economic conditions [17][18]. - The overall residential property transaction volume in Hong Kong is expected to rise by 5-8% in 2025, with a potential price rebound of around 5% [18].