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鸡蛋:存栏持续增长 5 月或偏弱运行:需求库存
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-09 12:57

Supply Side - The number of laying hens in production has shown an upward trend, with a monthly stock of approximately 1.329 billion as of the end of April, up from 1.318 billion at the end of March and 1.306 billion at the end of February, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% compared to 1.24 billion last year [1] - Due to favorable breeding profits starting from May 2024, the replenishment enthusiasm in the second half of 2024 is expected to recover and continue. Some sample enterprises suggest a slight increase in stock in the second quarter of this year, with current breeding profits indicating this trend may persist at least until the end of the second quarter [1] Demand Side - Weekly chicken egg sales for the four weeks leading up to May 1 were approximately 8,772 tons, consistent with March figures and up from 6,942 tons in February, while April sales were around 7,674 tons. April sales showed an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, with good sales post-Qingming Festival, although some demand may be attributed to low-price stockpiling that has not yet been fully consumed at the terminal level [1] - From April 30 to May 3, the nationwide inter-regional mobility increased by about 5.5% year-on-year, compared to a 2.1% increase during the same five days last year, which is beneficial for holiday consumption demand for eggs [1] Market Outlook - The current peak season for spot demand is not robust, with excess inventory needing to be digested. A decline in demand is anticipated, leading to a weaker market in May, with attention on the replenishment situation post-Duanwu Festival. The futures market may see price declines due to weak spot conditions and low basis for the June contract, with short-term bearish sentiment prevailing [1] - Strategies suggest that producers and spot traders should view May's spot prices as weak, while futures speculators may find the June futures overvalued. Monitoring mid-month spot stability is crucial, with a bearish approach recommended if conditions remain lukewarm. Opportunities for long positions may arise after the rainy season, particularly for the August and September contracts once valuations decrease [1] - Key variables to watch include Duanwu demand, culling intentions, and feed costs [1]