鸡蛋：存栏增长，需求有增，5 月或偏弱

Supply Side - The number of laying hens in production has shown an upward trend, with approximately 1.329 billion hens as of the end of April, up from 1.318 billion at the end of March and 1.306 billion at the end of February, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% from 1.24 billion last year [1] - Due to favorable breeding profits starting in May 2024, the replenishment enthusiasm in the second half of the year has improved and is expected to continue [1] - Sample enterprise data suggests a slight increase in stock levels is anticipated in Q2 2024, with this trend likely to persist at least until the end of Q2 [1] Demand Side - Weekly chicken egg sales for the four weeks ending May 1 were approximately 8,772 tons, consistent with March figures and up from 6,942 tons in February, while April sales were around 7,674 tons [1] - April sales showed both month-on-month and year-on-year increases, with good sales post-Qingming Festival, although some demand may be attributed to low-price stockpiling that has not yet been fully consumed at the terminal [1] - The inter-regional movement of people increased by about 5.5% compared to last year during the May Day holiday, which is beneficial for holiday consumption demand for eggs [1] Market Outlook - The current demand season is not robust, with excess inventory needing to be digested, leading to a potentially weak market in May, with attention on the Dragon Boat Festival stocking situation at the end of the month [1] - In the futures market, due to weak spot prices and low basis for the June contract, there may be room for price declines, with a rebound contingent on continued increases in chicken culling [1] - Short-term outlook is bearish, with futures traders advised to monitor mid-month spot stability and consider bearish operations if demand remains lukewarm, while looking for opportunities in the August and September contracts post-monsoon season [1] Key Variables - Important variables to monitor include the demand situation for the Dragon Boat Festival, culling intentions, and feed costs [1]