Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-05-09 13:34Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi is expected to replicate the success of tech giants like Apple, driven by strong performance in electric vehicles and smartphones, with Morgan Stanley projecting a market value of 2.5 trillion RMB by 2030 and a stock price exceeding 100 HKD, indicating nearly 100% upside potential in the next five years [1][2]. Group 1: Long-term Growth Drivers - Xiaomi's long-term growth will be driven by two core engines: the electric vehicle (EV) business and traditional business (smartphones + AIoT + internet services) [2]. - Revenue from the EV business is projected to grow from 33 billion RMB in 2024 to 233 billion RMB in 2027, and further to 462 billion RMB by 2030, with profits expected to reach 46 billion RMB by 2030 [2]. - Traditional business revenue is expected to increase from 333 billion RMB in 2024 to 600 billion RMB by 2030, with profits rising from 33.4 billion RMB in 2024 to 70 billion RMB in 2030 [2]. Group 2: Valuation Comparisons - Morgan Stanley uses Tesla, BYD, and Apple as valuation benchmarks for Xiaomi, noting that BYD's EV sales grew approximately 70% in 2020 and 150% in 2021, with significant increases in price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios [9][12]. - Tesla's P/S ratio also saw a rise from 2-4 times in 2017-2019 to 10-18 times in 2020-2022, correlating with accelerated EV sales growth [12]. - Xiaomi's EV sales are expected to grow significantly, with delivery projections increasing from 137,000 units in 2024 to 750,000 units in 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 100% [15]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley has raised the average selling price forecasts for Xiaomi's EVs for 2025 and 2026 to 250,000 RMB and 255,000 RMB, respectively, with gross margin estimates adjusted to 20.7% and 22.2% [3]. - By 2030, Xiaomi's total revenue is expected to exceed 1 trillion RMB, with net profits projected to surpass 100 billion RMB [3]. Group 4: Market Scenarios - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of 62 HKD for Xiaomi, with a market value projection of 1.2-1.6 trillion RMB under baseline scenarios, and a potential target price of 75-85 HKD in optimistic scenarios [18]. - In a pessimistic scenario, if the EV business underperforms, the target price could drop to 25-40 HKD, corresponding to a market value of 625-950 billion RMB [18].