钢材：高供应弱需求矛盾将逐步凸显

Group 1 - High supply pressure persists with insufficient production cut momentum as steel mills maintain high output levels, with average daily pig iron production reaching 2.4564 million tons as of May 9, an increase of 0.22 million tons from the previous month and 2.127 million tons from the year's low [1] - Steel mills are experiencing profit compression, with rebar profits in Jiangsu dropping to approximately 40 CNY/ton, yet they have not entered a full loss zone, resulting in a lack of motivation for proactive production cuts [1] - The market sentiment has been temporarily boosted by news of potential crude steel production limits, but the actual impact on short-term production remains minimal due to the time lag in policy implementation [1] Group 2 - Demand resilience is gradually weakening, with seasonal and export pressures becoming evident; while domestic demand has shown strength due to infrastructure investment and manufacturing orders, its sustainability is in question [3] - Infrastructure investment has been supported by accelerated special bond issuance, with a year-on-year increase of 9 percentage points in issuance progress, reaching 41.5% by the end of April [3] - Export demand remains resilient but shows a clear downward trend; the export price gap for hot-rolled coils has widened to over 50 USD/ton, which has marginally improved order intake for some steel mills [4] Group 3 - Iron ore prices are experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with short-term steel production maintaining high levels, leading to stable demand for iron ore [5] - The supply-side pressure is manageable, with seasonal recovery in shipment volumes from major mining countries, although non-mainstream mines are limited in their output due to price declines [6] - In the medium to long term, there are risks of iron ore prices weakening if both domestic and export steel demand decline, potentially leading to further production cuts by steel mills [6] Group 4 - Steel prices are expected to show an overall trend of "stability followed by decline" in May, with initial support from domestic demand but potential weakening as seasonal effects and profit compression take hold [7] - The average planned daily pig iron production for May is projected to be around 2.4 million tons, with limited declines, making it difficult to reverse the high supply situation in the short term [7] - Key variables affecting steel prices include the ability of steel mills to adjust production in response to market demand changes, with potential for price rebounds if unexpected production cuts or counter-cyclical policies are introduced [7]