纯碱周刊：纯碱价格先扬后抑 短期波动后进入整理阶段（20250508期）

Core Insights - Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical announced a reduction maintenance for its soda ash facility starting April 29, expected to last about half a month, which will significantly impact the supply-demand dynamics in the soda ash industry [1] - The soda ash market is experiencing rising demand due to economic recovery, but companies are facing challenges from increasing raw material costs and stricter environmental regulations [1][2] - Other soda ash producers are also adjusting their operations, with several facilities running at reduced capacity, indicating a potential tightening of supply and possible price increases [2][3] Industry Dynamics - The soda ash market is currently seeing price fluctuations, with light soda ash prices ranging from 1050 to 1670 RMB/ton and heavy soda ash prices from 1050 to 1700 RMB/ton [6] - Recent maintenance activities and pre-holiday stockpiling have led to a temporary price increase, but the market is now stabilizing with reduced trading activity [6][7] - The overall operating rate in the soda ash industry is approximately 89.50%, showing a slight decrease from the previous week [15] Supply Chain Adjustments - Various soda ash facilities are undergoing maintenance or operating at reduced capacity, including Shandong Haihua and Shaanxi Xinghua, which are both running at lower loads [2][14] - The total inventory of soda ash in the domestic market has increased to 1.7 million tons, up from 1.67 million tons the previous week [17] - The production profit for the soda ash industry has seen a slight increase, with the profit from the soda ash production process using the ammonia-soda method rising to 50 RMB/ton [10][11] Price Trends - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow range of price adjustments in the short term due to a tightening supply situation, while demand remains relatively stable [7] - The price comparison across different regions shows variations, with some areas experiencing price increases while others see declines [9][20] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of limited upward price movement due to stable demand [7][22]