评论丨巴菲特为何长期持有日本商社股份？

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett announced at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting that he intends to hold shares in Japan's five major trading companies for the long term, without plans to sell for the next 50 years [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in Japanese Trading Companies - The announcement led to immediate stock price increases for the five major trading companies: Itochu, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, and Marubeni, with Mitsui and Marubeni seeing a 6% rise [1]. - Buffett's investment philosophy, which has been practiced for 60 years, is expected to be maintained by his successor, Abel, despite concerns about his comparatively smaller stake in Berkshire Hathaway [1][2]. - The five major trading companies have historically been undervalued, with Mitsubishi's PBR at 0.86 in 2019 compared to the Nikkei average of 1.1, but Buffett sees their diverse business models and strong financial foundations as attractive investment opportunities [2]. Group 2: Resilience and Adaptation of Japanese Trading Companies - Japanese trading companies have evolved since the Meiji Restoration, playing a crucial role in Japan's industrialization, but faced significant challenges post-economic boom [3]. - These companies have adapted by leveraging their international networks to build global competitiveness, allowing them to withstand economic fluctuations and maintain profitability [3]. - For instance, Mitsubishi has made significant investments in shale oil and data centers, while Marubeni continues to profit in the energy sector despite falling international resource prices [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns and Market Impact - The five major trading companies have been increasing shareholder returns through measures like dividend hikes and stock buybacks, which align with Buffett's investment criteria [4]. - Buffett's long-term commitment to these companies is expected to boost investor confidence in the Japanese stock market, potentially marking a turning point for market sentiment [4]. - There is speculation that this could lead to increased investment interest in Japanese financial and real estate sectors [4]. Group 4: Caution in Investment Strategy - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding the overall fragility of the Japanese economy and the specific reasons for Buffett's focus on these trading companies [5]. - Berkshire Hathaway has been issuing yen-denominated bonds to finance its investments in Japan, indicating a cautious approach despite the favorable investment returns [5]. - Buffett has expressed regret for not investing more in Japan, highlighting a careful balance between optimism and caution in his investment strategy [5][6].