美乌稀土协议：一场注定流产的资源豪赌

Group 1: Core Insights - The signing of the US-Ukraine rare earth agreement is portrayed as a significant shift in global supply chains, but the actual rare earth reserves in Ukraine are only 150,000 tons, which is less than 0.3% of China's reserves [1][3] - The agreement faces substantial challenges, including high costs for infrastructure rebuilding, lack of separation technology, and the need for military protection, which could lead to a significant increase in operational costs [4][10] - The volatility in rare earth prices, particularly after China's export controls, has raised concerns about the investment returns from the US-Ukraine agreement [4][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - Russia's military and technological responses to the US-Ukraine agreement, including the deployment of advanced missile systems and the establishment of an "Eurasian Rare Earth Alliance," threaten to undermine the agreement's viability [7][10] - China's strategic moves, such as signing agreements with Vietnam and enhancing its rare earth extraction technologies, further challenge the US's position in the rare earth market [7][10] - The European Union's cautious stance towards the US-Ukraine agreement indicates a potential shift in alliances and resource strategies, as EU companies seek to collaborate with China instead [9][10] Group 3: Historical Context and Strategic Implications - The US-Ukraine rare earth strategy mirrors past geopolitical miscalculations, such as the Afghanistan conflict, highlighting a pattern of resource-driven military interventions [9][10] - The agreement has sparked significant backlash within Ukraine, with public opinion largely viewing it as a betrayal of national interests, leading to protests and calls for political accountability [18] - The emergence of new alliances, such as the BRICS Rare Earth Alliance, signals a shift towards a multipolar world order, challenging the US's historical dominance in resource management [18]