存量房贷利率即将下调，降多少？值得关注的几个问题

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the State Council includes significant policies such as interest rate cuts and reductions in public housing loan rates, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on homebuyers [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The central bank has lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, which is expected to lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [3] - Currently, the LPR is at 3.6%, and most existing mortgage rates are set at LPR minus 30 basis points, resulting in an effective rate of 3.3% for existing borrowers [4] - Following the interest rate cut, the LPR is projected to drop to 3.5%, leading to a new mortgage rate of 3.2%, which would save borrowers approximately 50 yuan per month on a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years [5] Group 2: New Homebuyer Benefits - New homebuyers are currently benefiting from lower rates, with some receiving LPR minus 70 basis points, resulting in a rate of 2.9%, which will decrease to 2.8% after the recent cut [6] Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - There is speculation that further interest rate cuts may occur in 2025, with a potential reduction of 50 basis points due to a combination of factors including a clear monetary easing policy and weak market demand for housing [9] - The next expected rate cut may depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, with predictions of three rate cuts within the year [9] Group 4: Public Housing Loan Rate Adjustments - The People's Bank of China has announced a reduction in public housing loan rates effective from May 8, 2025, with first-time homebuyer rates adjusted to 2.1% for loans up to 5 years and 2.6% for loans over 5 years [12] - For second-time homebuyers, the rates will be adjusted to not lower than 2.525% for loans up to 5 years and 3.075% for loans over 5 years [12][13] - Existing loans issued before May 8, 2025, will see adjustments starting January 1, 2026, in most regions, although Shenzhen may implement changes sooner based on previous practices [13]