【月度观察·渣油】：4月跌幅收窄 5月或区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure in the residual oil market has decreased in April, but downstream demand remains limited, leading to an overall decline in prices, with a slight narrowing of the decline [1][2][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In April, the average price of low-sulfur residual oil was 4260 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan/ton or 7.99% from the beginning of the month, while the average price of medium-sulfur residual oil was 4080 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 5.56% [1]. - The average operating load of domestic major refineries in April was 75.35%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points month-on-month, while the average operating load of Shandong independent refineries was 54.74%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [6]. - The actual external supply of residual oil in April was around 360,000 tons, a decrease of 27.21% month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply situation [6]. Price Trends - The international oil price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by moderate rebound, with the WTI average price at $62.96/barrel, down $4.98/barrel or 7.33% month-on-month, and the Brent average price at $66.46/barrel, down $5.01/barrel or 7.01% [4]. - The average profit of Shandong independent refineries' coking units in April was 337 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton from the previous month, indicating reduced profitability and lower procurement willingness for residual oil [8]. Future Outlook - For May, residual oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with limited upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and continued weakening of cost support [10][11]. - The forecast for low-sulfur residual oil prices is between 4015-4380 yuan/ton, while medium-sulfur residual oil prices are expected to range from 3850-4200 yuan/ton [12].