【UNFX课堂】外汇市场一周回顾（2025年5月5日-5月9日）

Group 1: Market Overview - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by trade negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global central bank policy dynamics, and geopolitical risks [1][6] - The focus of the market is on the progress of tariff negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and the performance of global economic data, with geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties remaining key factors affecting market sentiment [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index showed a fluctuating trend, opening around 99.8, reaching a high of 100.64, with an increase of approximately 1.03% [3] - Initially pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates, the dollar rebounded after comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and trade policy, closing at 100.42 [3] - The dollar exhibited "bull-bear divergence," with investors remaining cautious due to the complexity of US economic data and global economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Euro and Pound Performance - The euro experienced a volatile week, initially rising for two consecutive trading days before declining on Wednesday and Thursday, closing with a slight rebound at 1.12511 [3] - The euro is expected to face long-term resistance at 1.2150, with insufficient upward momentum, likely maintaining a narrow ascending channel in the short term [3] - The British pound weakened due to uncertainties surrounding the Bank of England's interest rate decision and economic data, closing around 1.3300 [3] Group 4: Safe-Haven and Commodity Currencies - Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc performed poorly this week, with the USD/JPY pair showing a V-shaped trend as market risk aversion eased amid tariff negotiations [4] - Commodity currencies were mixed, with the Australian dollar weakening due to global economic growth concerns and commodity price fluctuations, while the Canadian dollar stabilized and rebounded due to rising oil prices [5] Group 5: Global Central Bank Dynamics - Several central banks maintained their policies this week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which continued their accommodative stances [7] - The Norwegian central bank kept high interest rates to address rising inflation [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority took actions to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, emphasizing the importance of regional financial stability [6][7]