撤离中国？美企搬石砸脚

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war between the US and China is pushing economic relations to the brink, with claims of 70,000 American companies withdrawing from the Chinese market being more of a self-destructive threat than a viable option [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on American Companies - Over 70,000 American companies currently operate in China, with cumulative investments exceeding $1.2 trillion and annual sales surpassing $600 billion, indicating a significant economic stake in the region [1]. - The average profit margin for these companies is nearly 9%, which is difficult to replicate in other major markets, highlighting the unique advantages of operating in China [1]. - Companies like Tesla and Apple have deeply integrated their operations in China, relying on local supply chains and manufacturing efficiencies that are critical to their global profitability [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Consequences of Withdrawal - A mass withdrawal of American companies from China would not only result in a loss of $600 billion in annual sales for the Chinese market but also lead to significant job losses, estimated at around 4 million [8]. - The potential economic fallout for the US includes capital flight, manufacturing decline, stock market volatility, job losses, and increased fiscal deficits, which would be detrimental to the American economy [8]. - The narrative of "decoupling" and "disconnection" is seen as a self-inflicted wound for the US, as it would exacerbate inflation and increase costs for American businesses [6][8]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The trade war is viewed as a necessary response from China, which must counteract US tariffs and protect its economic interests through strategic measures such as export controls and tariffs on American products [5]. - The relationship between the US and China is characterized by interdependence, where both economies benefit from collaboration rather than confrontation, suggesting that a trade war would ultimately harm both sides [8]. - China's strong domestic market, resilient supply chains, and policy tools position it well to withstand external pressures, indicating that any forced withdrawal of American companies would disrupt not only the Chinese economy but also the global economic landscape [8].