野村：日本寿险美元资产占比过高，一旦减持或对冲，将对美元产生重大压力

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the US dollar is raising concerns among market participants about potential withdrawals of US assets by long-term investors, particularly Japanese investors [1] Group 1: Japanese Investors' Holdings in US Assets - As of February 2025, Japanese investors hold approximately $2.7 trillion (402 trillion yen) in US securities, with 38% ($1.0 trillion) in US Treasury bonds, 22% ($0.6 trillion) in other long-term US bonds, and 40% ($1.1 trillion) in US stocks [3] - Japanese insurance companies have a historically high dollar asset proportion of 72% in their foreign securities investments, indicating significant potential for "de-dollarization" [2][9] Group 2: Risks of Asset Reduction - The risk of Japanese investors reducing their holdings in US bonds is significantly higher than in stocks, with insurance companies being a key factor [2][9] - Pension funds are generally passive investors, making large-scale sell-offs of US stocks unlikely, while retail investors may slow their purchases but rarely engage in sustained selling [9] Group 3: Potential Market Impact - If Japanese insurance companies were to sell 10% of their US bonds or increase their hedging ratio by 10 percentage points, it could create a buying pressure of over 5 trillion yen for the yen [11] - The potential for Japanese authorities to consider selling US bonds poses a "tail risk" that could lead to significant instability in the US bond market and further depreciation of the US dollar [11]