4月CPI环比由降转升，政策合力有望利好部分领域价格

Core Insights - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, reversing a previous decline of 0.4%, while the year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1% [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, slightly better than market expectations, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [2][4] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase was primarily driven by a rebound in food and travel service prices, exceeding seasonal levels by 0.2 percentage points [2][4] - Year-on-year, energy prices fell by 4.8%, with gasoline prices dropping by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the CPI decline [4][5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5%, indicating stable inflation in essential goods [4][5] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by international factors, particularly falling crude oil prices, which affected domestic oil-related industries [7] - The coal mining and processing sectors also saw a seasonal decline in prices, contributing to the overall PPI decrease [7] - Despite current pressures, there are expectations for a potential rebound in PPI due to targeted policies aimed at boosting demand in real estate and consumption [7][8] Policy Implications - The government is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy into 2025, with potential room for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis point interest rate reduction [3] - Policies focusing on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and promoting service consumption are anticipated to support stable price levels [6] - The ongoing implementation of macroeconomic policies is expected to enhance domestic demand, particularly in technology, consumption, and foreign trade sectors [6][8]