前沿观察丨美国能源信息署下调WTI油价预期！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly lowered its WTI crude oil price forecasts for the next two years, indicating a bearish outlook for the oil market [4]. Price Forecast Adjustments - The EIA has revised its 2025 WTI spot price forecast from $63.88 per barrel to $61.81 per barrel, and for 2026, from $57.48 per barrel to $55.24 per barrel. The 2024 WTI spot price forecast remains unchanged at $76.60 per barrel [4]. - The EIA's quarterly price predictions for 2025 include $60.85 per barrel in Q2, $58 in Q3, and $57 in Q4, with Q1 at $71.85 per barrel. For 2026, the forecasts are $56 per barrel in Q1 and Q2, $55 in Q3, and $54 in Q4 [4]. Comparison with Previous Forecasts - The latest forecasts show a downward trend compared to the EIA's April predictions, which had estimated $62.33 per barrel for Q2 2025, $61.67 for Q3, and $60 for Q4. The 2026 forecasts were $59 for Q1, $58 for Q2, $57 for Q3, and $56 for Q4 [4]. - In March, the EIA had a more optimistic outlook, predicting an average price of $70.68 per barrel for 2025 and $64.97 per barrel for 2026 [5]. Other Market Predictions - Standard Chartered's commodity research head forecasts an average WTI price of $58 per barrel for 2025, rising to $75 per barrel in 2026, with specific quarterly predictions for 2025 being $50 in Q2, $49 in Q3, and $62 in Q4 [5]. - J.P. Morgan's commodity research team anticipates an average WTI price of $62 per barrel for 2025, potentially dropping to $54 per barrel in 2026, with Q2 2025 expected to be $63 per barrel, declining to $57 in Q4 [5].