Xianhe(SH:603733) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-11 00:31Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.27 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 billion yuan, up 51.2% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a decline in net profit in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, attributed to price decreases and impairment impacts, although there was a marginal improvement in profitability in Q1 2025 [1] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 15.5%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 9.8%, up 2 percentage points [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 190 million yuan, down 33.7% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, down 12.1% [1] - The gross profit margin in Q4 2024 decreased to 12.8%, down 5.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 6.2%, down 5.8 percentage points [1] Volume and Price Dynamics - The company achieved a sales volume of 1.223 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, benefiting from capacity release in Hubei and Guangxi projects [2] - The average selling price per ton in 2024 was approximately 8,400 yuan, a decrease of 400 yuan, while the net profit per ton (including investment income) was about 820 yuan, an increase of 140 yuan [2] - It is estimated that the selling price per ton in Q1 2025 will decline compared to 2024 due to market competition [2] Project Developments - The Hubei and Guangxi projects began operations in 2024, with significant production outputs contributing to the company's growth [3] - The Guangxi base produced 100,000 tons of wood pulp and 28,700 tons of specialty paper, while the Hubei base produced 59,800 tons of wood pulp and 93,400 tons of specialty paper [3] - The company plans to expand the Guangxi project in 2025, adding 600,000 tons of pulp and 700,000 tons of specialty paper capacity, enhancing its production capabilities [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.2 billion yuan, 15.4 billion yuan, and 18 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 16%, and 17% respectively [4] - Projected net profits for the same period are 1.19 billion yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 1.59 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 19%, 16%, and 16% [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its management and manufacturing advantages, as well as a comprehensive product matrix [4]