轻工制造 行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 07 月 20 日 Q2 出口板块个股业绩分化；内需 整体仍存盈利压力，两轮车、黄金 珠宝表现较好 看好 ——轻工造纸行业 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 (8621)23297818× weiyc@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 1）出口：25Q2 业绩存在分化，抗风险突出个股业绩增长稳健。25Q2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed an investment agreement for a new integrated bamboo pulp and high-performance paper-based materials project in Sichuan, with a total planned investment of approximately 11 billion yuan, aiming to produce 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper annually [2][3]. Investment and Expansion Plans - The project will be implemented in phases, with the first phase involving an investment of about 5.5 billion yuan to produce 400,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 600,000 tons of high-performance paper [3]. - The second phase will also require an investment of approximately 5.5 billion yuan, with similar production targets as the first phase [3]. - The company aims to achieve the first phase's production within three years from the start of construction, while the second phase will depend on market conditions and operational performance [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.11%, and a net profit of 1.004 billion yuan, up 51.23% [4]. - However, the fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, but a net profit decline of 33.7% [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 2.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, but a net profit decrease of 12.1% [4]. Debt and Financial Pressure - The company's debt levels have been increasing, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 65.49% as of March 2025, up from 32.46% in 2020 [7]. - Long-term borrowings rose from 3.409 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.923 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with interest expenses increasing significantly [7]. - The company has a short-term liquidity challenge, with cash on hand of 895 million yuan against short-term borrowings of 2.037 billion yuan [7]. Strategic Rationale for Expansion - The company is expanding based on national policies promoting the use of bamboo as a substitute for plastic and aims to reduce reliance on imported raw materials [5]. - The bamboo resource is renewable and aligns with environmental trends, with the first phase expected to generate an annual output value of 5.15 billion yuan and tax revenue of 450 million yuan [5]. - The company is focusing on high-performance paper-based materials to avoid market homogenization and strengthen its competitive advantage [5]. Financing Strategies - The company plans to finance the new project through bank loans, diversified financing, and operational cash flow from existing projects [8]. - It aims to enhance its debt repayment capacity through increased cash flow from the new projects and is expected to receive preferential treatment for green financing due to alignment with national strategies [8]. - The controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake by 300 million to 500 million yuan to boost market confidence [8].

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to invest 11 billion yuan to establish an integrated high-performance paper base new material project using bamboo pulp, aiming to enhance production capacity and reduce reliance on imported raw materials [1][2]. Investment Details - The investment will be executed in two phases, with each phase costing approximately 5.5 billion yuan, leading to a total investment of 11 billion yuan [1]. - Upon completion, the project is expected to add an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper base materials, generating an estimated annual output value of 5.15 billion yuan and tax revenue of about 450 million yuan, while creating around 2,000 jobs [1]. Strategic Rationale - The investment aims to extend the industrial chain, achieve raw material self-sufficiency, and control costs, addressing the current dependency on imported wood pulp, which poses risks to cost management and supply chain stability [2][5]. - In 2024, the daily consumer series, which includes specialty paper, is projected to account for 47.05% of total revenue, highlighting the critical need for stable raw material supply [2]. Financial Implications - The total investment of 11 billion yuan represents 136% of Xianhe's net assets for 2024, with a current debt-to-asset ratio of 65.11%, indicating potential financial strain from large-scale financing [7]. - The company plans to finance the first phase of 5.5 billion yuan in batches, adjusting based on future demand and market conditions [7]. Market Conditions - The bamboo pulp production capacity utilization rate is expected to be only 85% in 2024, raising concerns about the feasibility of absorbing the new production capacity without facing impairment risks [7]. - Xianhe Co. faces competitive pressures from peers like Qingshan Paper Industry, which is also expanding its bamboo pulp capacity, potentially leading to increased price competition in the industry [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company announced an adjustment to the conversion price of its convertible bond "He 21 Convertible Bond" due to the implementation of the 2024 annual equity distribution, lowering the conversion price from 19.49 CNY/share to 18.99 CNY/share, effective from July 10, 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Bond Details - The bond code for "He 21 Convertible Bond" is 113632, and the bond was issued on November 17, 2021, with a total issuance of 205 million bonds, amounting to 2.05 billion CNY, and a maturity period of 6 years [1][2]. - The previous conversion price before adjustment was 19.49 CNY/share, and the new conversion price after adjustment is 18.99 CNY/share [1][5]. Group 2: Adjustment Rationale - The adjustment of the conversion price is based on the company's profit distribution plan, which includes a cash dividend of 0.50 CNY/share for shareholders [4][5]. - The adjustment formula for the conversion price is specified in the bond's prospectus, which accounts for various scenarios such as stock dividends, capital increases, and cash dividends [4][5]. Group 3: Trading Suspension - The securities will be suspended from trading from July 3, 2025, to July 9, 2025, during the equity distribution registration period, and trading will resume on July 10, 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company plans to invest CNY 11 billion in an integrated high-performance paper-based new material project in Sichuan, which includes the construction of 400,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 600,000 tons of paper, contributing a total of 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of paper [1] - The first phase is expected to achieve an annual output value of approximately CNY 5.15 billion, with production anticipated to commence within three years from the start of construction [1] - The investment aims to seize high-quality bamboo forest resources in China, with the bamboo pulp production line expected to be the first to commence operations [1][2] Summary by Sections Market Potential - The bamboo pulp market is expected to expand significantly, with 2023 production at 2.54 million tons, accounting for only 2.9% of total pulp production [2] - Government initiatives, such as the "Replace Plastic with Bamboo" action plan, are set to boost the bamboo pulp paper industry, with an anticipated 200,000 to 250,000 tons of new capacity to be launched in the next three years [2] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of over 30% for the year, with a net profit forecast of CNY 1.31 billion in 2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year increase [3][4] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2023 to 15.8% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from CNY 0.94 in 2023 to CNY 1.85 in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 21.90 to 11.14 [4]

| 证券代码：603733 | 证券简称：仙鹤股份 | 公告编号：2025-032 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113632 | 债券简称：鹤 21 转债 | | 仙鹤股份有限公司 关于实施 2024 年年度权益分派调整"鹤 21 转债" 转股价格的公告 重要内容提示： 因实施 2024 年年度权益分派,本公司的相关证券停复牌情况如下： 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | 停复牌类型 | 停牌起始日 | 停牌 期间 | 停牌终止日 | 复牌日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 113632 | 鹤 21 | 转债 | 可转债转股复牌 | | | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准仙鹤股份有限公司公开发行可转换公 司债券的批复》（证监许可[2021]3200 号）核准，仙鹤股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"、"本公司"）于 2021 年 ...

2024年年度权益分派实施公告 | 证券代码：603733 | 证券简称：仙鹤股份 | 公告编号：2025-031 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113632 | 债券简称：鹤 21 转债 | | 仙鹤股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.50元 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/9 | － | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/10 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 5 月 20 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - SP2509 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5044 yuan/ton, closing price was 5072 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7] - SP2601 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5230 yuan/ton, closing price was 5284 yuan/ton, up 1.03% [7] - SP2605 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5178 yuan/ton, closing price was 5234 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: Coniferous pulp intended transaction price range was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low-end price stable compared to the previous trading day. Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] Operation Suggestions - Supply side: In May, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp-producing countries decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6% year-on-year. European port wood pulp inventory in May increased by 13.3% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, up 4.3% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year. As of June 26, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.49% month-on-month [8] - Demand side: Downstream paper mills' raw material procurement mentality remained cautious, mainly replenishing inventory at low levels for rigid demand [8] - Market outlook: The current port de-stocking speed is slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, and with the expectation of new domestic production capacity, the improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, and it will operate in a low-range oscillation [8] Group 3: Industry News - On July 2, Xianhe Co., Ltd. announced an overseas investment. On June 30, 2025, the company signed an investment agreement with the People's Government of Hejiang County, Sichuan Province, for a bamboo pulp and paper integrated high-performance paper-based new material project. The total investment is expected to be about 11 billion yuan to build an 800,000-ton bamboo pulp and 1.2 million-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The project is planned in stages. The first phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The second phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line, corresponding supporting projects, and a bamboo forest base [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp futures-spot price difference, needle-broadleaf price difference, inter-period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, white cardboard and whiteboard price and price difference, copperplate paper and offset paper price and price difference, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][26][28][30]

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. has signed a significant investment agreement with the government of Hejiang County, Sichuan Province, for a bamboo pulp paper integrated high-performance paper base new materials project, with a total investment of approximately 11 billion yuan [1][5]. Investment Details - The project will be constructed in two phases, each with an investment of about 5.5 billion yuan, aiming to produce 400,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 600,000 tons of high-performance paper base new materials annually [2][5]. - The project is expected to generate an annual output value of approximately 5.15 billion yuan and provide around 2,000 jobs upon completion of the first phase [5][6]. Historical Investments - Since 2020, Xianhe Co., Ltd. has announced significant investments totaling 50.9 billion yuan across various projects in Guangxi, Hubei, and Shandong, in addition to the current Sichuan project [2][9]. - Notable projects include a 21.9 billion yuan expansion in Guangxi and a 10 billion yuan project in Shishou, Hubei [8][9]. Financial Position - As of the end of Q1 this year, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 65.49%, marking a historical high, with interest-bearing liabilities of 12.146 billion yuan against cash holdings of only 895 million yuan [4][11]. - The company's profitability has shown volatility, with net profits fluctuating from 1.017 billion yuan in 2021 to 1.004 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of 41.76%, -30.14%, -6.55%, and 51.23% respectively [11]. Market Position - Xianhe Co., Ltd. is recognized as one of the largest specialized manufacturers of high-performance paper base functional materials in China, with a diverse product range and significant market share in various segments [10]. - The company holds nearly 45% market share in the tobacco industry paper segment and about 25% in the thermal paper market, indicating a strong competitive position [10].

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. has signed an investment agreement for a bamboo pulp paper integrated high-performance paper base new material project with a total planned investment of approximately 11 billion yuan, aiming to enhance production capacity and resource utilization in the bamboo pulp paper industry [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project will be implemented in phases, with the first phase involving an investment of about 5.5 billion yuan to establish production lines for 400,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 600,000 tons of high-performance paper base materials [1]. - The project is located in the Linjiang New Material Industrial Park in Hejiang County, Luzhou City, Sichuan Province, benefiting from abundant bamboo resources and favorable geographical conditions [1]. - Upon completion of the first phase, the project is expected to generate an annual output value of approximately 5.15 billion yuan and provide around 2,000 jobs [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The project is expected to improve the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials, reduce procurement and transportation costs, and enhance supply stability and cost control capabilities [2]. - Xianhe Co., Ltd. is actively expanding its high-performance paper base materials segment, responding to the trend of replacing plastic with paper and bamboo, and has launched several customized terminal products [2]. - The company has filed 73 patent applications in 2024, including 33 invention patents and 40 utility model patents, indicating a strong commitment to research and development [2]. Group 3: Broader Investment Context - In addition to the Sichuan project, Xianhe Co., Ltd. is also advancing two other major investment projects in Guangxi and Hubei, which are progressing according to plan and have begun production [3]. - The Guangxi project has already produced 100,100 tons of wood pulp and 28,900 tons of specialty paper in 2024, while the Hubei project has produced 93,400 tons of specialty paper and 59,800 tons of self-produced pulp [3]. - The multi-regional layout of Xianhe Co., Ltd. helps to mitigate regional risks and enhances overall competitiveness through resource differentiation and technology sharing [3].