美国“豹变”100年：萧条与繁荣轮回背后，美联储的创伤后遗症

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical context and consequences of the Great Depression, focusing on the role of the Federal Reserve and key figures like Benjamin Strong in shaping U.S. economic policy and its impact on financial stability [3][10][17]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve made a critical mistake by tightening monetary policy during the initial crisis, leading to a complete economic collapse in the U.S. [3] - The establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 aimed to create a more stable financial system, with the New York Fed becoming the most influential due to its connections to Wall Street [3][6]. - Benjamin Strong, initially reluctant to accept the position of New York Fed president due to low salary, eventually took the role and played a significant part in establishing the Fed's global financial dominance during World War I [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Conditions Preceding the Great Depression - In 1929, the U.S. saw a massive influx of college graduates, yet less than one-third held a bachelor's degree, leading to fierce competition for low-paying jobs [4]. - The 1920s were marked by significant economic growth, with the U.S. becoming the largest creditor nation and experiencing a consumer boom, but this prosperity masked underlying financial risks [8]. - The stock market experienced a dramatic rise, with the S&P index increasing by 90% in three years, leading to rampant speculation and a precarious financial environment [8][10]. Group 3: Consequences of the Great Depression - The stock market crash on October 29, 1929, resulted in an 11.7% drop in the Dow Jones index, erasing one-third of American wealth overnight [12]. - The economic crisis led to the failure of over 10,000 banks and skyrocketing unemployment, reaching 13 million, with even basic jobs requiring a college degree [12][14]. - President Hoover's inaction and belief in market self-correction exacerbated the crisis, while Roosevelt's subsequent policies began to restore economic stability [15][17].