中国重汽(000951)：营收同环比双增 看好内需持续释放

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 12.91 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%, with a net profit of 310 million yuan, also up 13% year-on-year but down 43% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below expectations due to changes in product and market structure [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 revenue increased to 12.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 310 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 43%, slightly below the forecast of 325-335 million yuan [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 was 7.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 4.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin was 2.4%, up 0.01 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The heavy truck replacement policy is expanding to include National IV vehicles and LNG trucks, which is expected to boost replacement demand significantly, with annual heavy truck sales potentially exceeding one million units [1][3]. - The heavy truck industry is showing signs of recovery, with a notable improvement in Q1, as indicated by a 3% year-on-year decline and a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase in wholesale sales [2][3]. - The demand for new energy heavy trucks is on the rise, with March sales of pure electric heavy trucks reaching 14,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 183% and a month-on-month increase of 79% [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - The company maintains its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 at 1.50, 1.72, and 2.12 yuan respectively [4]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is expected to be 13 times, but the company is projected to have a valuation premium due to its leading position in the heavy truck market, with a target PE of 14 times and a target price of 21.00 yuan [4].