油价大降0.6元/升，原油大涨5.26%，5月19日调价，油价大降变小跌

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil market is experiencing fluctuations in pricing, with the latest adjustments indicating a potential decrease in fuel prices due to changes in crude oil rates and market conditions [1][5][7]. Oil Price Adjustment Rules - Domestic oil prices are adjusted every 10 working days based on overnight crude oil changes, with a threshold of 50 yuan/ton for adjustments to take effect [3]. - If the adjustment is less than 50 yuan/ton, it will be carried over to the next pricing cycle [3]. Latest Oil Price News - As of May 11, 2025, the domestic oil price is in a resting phase, with a projected decrease of 0.26 to 0.31 yuan/liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline due to a crude oil change rate of -5.72% [3][5]. - The upcoming price adjustment is scheduled for May 19, 2025, with expectations of a cumulative decrease in gasoline prices [5]. Historical Price Adjustments - In the first nine adjustments of 2025, the market has seen 4 decreases, 3 increases, and 2 instances of no change, resulting in a net decrease of 425 yuan/ton for gasoline [5]. - If the current downward trend continues, the total decrease could reach 0.6 yuan/liter, potentially bringing 92 octane gasoline back to the "6 yuan era" [5]. Oil Price Predictions - The current oil price adjustment cycle has 6 working days remaining, with recent increases in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and economic factors [7]. - Despite the potential for a decrease in domestic oil prices, there is a risk that the anticipated large drop may be reduced to a smaller decline due to rising crude oil prices [7].