4 月中国餐饮行业数据跟踪：需求波动，外卖补贴撑起一片天

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs released the latest data tracking high-frequency indicators for China's restaurant industry, revealing mixed results for same-store sales in April [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The market sentiment has been negatively impacted by the U.S. tariff increases, leading to fluctuations in demand [1] - Despite a low base compared to pre-pandemic levels, Haidilao's table turnover rate in April saw a significant year-on-year decline, worsening from a low single-digit drop in March to a double-digit drop [1] - Labor Day holiday sales growth outpaced overall consumption growth, with key restaurant retail sales increasing by 8.7%, compared to a 6.3% rise in total retail sales [1] Group 2: Company Performances - Haidilao (6862.HK; Neutral): In April, Haidilao's average table turnover rate dropped to approximately 3.4 times, down from 3.6 times in March, indicating a recovery to about 70% of pre-pandemic levels [2] - Guming (1364.HK; Buy): Guming's same-store sales growth accelerated in April, benefiting from a low base and delivery platform subsidies, with plans to open 2,500 new stores this year [3] - Jiumaojiu (9922.HK; Neutral): During the Labor Day holiday, Jiumaojiu's same-store sales decline narrowed, with new stores performing well, indicating potential for future growth despite short-term pressures [4] - Naixue (2150.HK; Sell): Naixue's same-store sales increased by 3% in April, driven by a 7% rise in order volume, although the average transaction value decreased by 4% [6] Group 3: Sales Dynamics - Guming's management remains confident in its expansion plans, with a focus on new product launches to attract customers [3] - Naixue's delivery revenue surged by 77% during the Labor Day holiday, accounting for 52% of total orders, while dine-in revenue fell by approximately 10% [6] - Haidilao's table turnover rate during the Labor Day period exceeded 5 times, although it still represented a year-on-year decline of about 10% [2]