CTGR(600905) 新浪财经· Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-12 00:27Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 29.717 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.13%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.81%, primarily due to unexpected declines in photovoltaic electricity prices and increased asset and credit impairments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.717 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.111 billion yuan, which was below expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.067 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 31.37% and a dividend yield of 1.56% based on the stock price on May 9 [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.628 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.47%, while the net profit was 2.447 billion yuan, an increase of 1.16% [1] Group 2: Operational Highlights - The company completed a power generation of 71.952 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.40%, with wind power generation at 45.173 billion kWh (up 15.96%) and photovoltaic generation at 25.401 billion kWh (up 65.43%) [2] - By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity for wind and solar reached 22.432 million kW and 24.266 million kW, respectively, with significant year-on-year increases [2] - In Q1 2025, the company sold its hydropower assets to focus on the renewable energy sector, resulting in an investment income of 736 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 572 million yuan [2] Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - The decline in net profit was attributed to increased depreciation and operating costs from new projects, a decrease in average on-grid electricity prices for wind and solar by 7.95% and 25.61%, respectively, and increased impairment provisions totaling 789 million yuan and 661 million yuan [3] - Despite the profit decline, the company's operating cash flow increased by 30.97% to 18.897 billion yuan in 2024, driven by improved electricity fee collections from new projects [4] - The company anticipates a recovery in profit growth as the impact of declining electricity prices diminishes, supported by ongoing capacity expansion [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 7.048 billion yuan and 7.688 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 8.305 billion yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, 16, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating that the valuation is near historical lows [5] - The company is expected to return to a historical average valuation of 21 times, suggesting a reasonable stock price of 5.25 yuan per share, representing a potential upside of 22% from the current price [5]