电力投资已经形成逻辑严密的生态闭环。 AI的尽头是电力，这早就不是一句简单的段子了。 随着以OpenClaw为代表的智能体类应用普及，算力消耗正式进入全新量级。 算力需要消耗海量电力，而电力的稳定供给与绿色转型，直接决定了算力的成本上限与合规门槛。 目前，电力行业的投资逻辑已经进化为具备重资产、低淘汰率特征的HALO资产。 在AI的大背景下，电力产业链的投资方向可以简单地划分为发电、送电以及存电三个环节。 今天风云君就和大家拆解清楚，这三个环节究竟有啥区别，相关的ETF又该如何选择。 发电端怎么选？电力还是绿电？ 很多朋友在看盘时，经常分不清电力指数和绿电指数。 简单来说，电力是所有电能的统称，无论火电、水电、风电、光伏还是核电，只要发出来的都叫电 力。 作者 | 破浪 编辑 | 小白 而绿电则是其中更干净、更环保的细分品类，比如通过风电、光伏、水电、生物质、核电等清洁、低 碳方式产生的电能。 从投资逻辑上看，两者在侧重点上有所差异。 01 电力指数核心属性是公用事业与高红利 全口径的电力指数覆盖面最广，可以理解为整个A股电力行业的"集合"。它不仅包含了各种清洁能 源，也将火电、核电等全部纳入其中，是电力行业 ...

证券研究报告 火电:1-2 月发电量同比增速由降转增，煤价同比下降或支撑盈利增长 公用环保 2026 年 1-2 月火电发电量同比增速由降转增，煤价同环比下降。据国家统 计局，2026 年 1-2 月全国火电发电量同比+3.3%，较 2025 年 12 月(同比 -1.0%)由降转增。考虑 1 个月库存，1Q26 秦皇岛动力末煤平仓均价 713 元 /吨(5500 大卡)，同比下降 6.2%，环比下降 5.0%。综合 2026 年各地长协 电价下行情况，我们认为部分火电公司 1Q26 归母净利或仍实现同比增长。 1Q26 业绩前瞻：看多电力，环保稳增 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 1-2 月火电发电量同比增速由降转增，煤价同环比下降，我们认为部分火电 公司 1Q26 归母净利或仍实现同比提升；1-2 月水电发电量同比增长；核电 稳健运行，机制电价政策出台；绿电运营商电量同比提升但消纳形势仍较为 严峻。展望 2Q26，火电关注电价 vs 煤价剪刀差；水电盈利主要取决于来 水情况；绿电关注电价及消纳的拐点；环保主要关注垃圾焚烧发电企业出海 进展、各地水价调整情况及回款情况。 水电& ...

证券研究报告 公用环保 从能源安全与减排约束看绿电价值重估 碳排放与绿电系列专题Ⅰ 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 24 日│中国内地 深度研究 +(86) 755 8249 3570 李雅琳 研究员 liyalin018092@htsc.com SAC No. S0570523050003 SFC No. BTC420 康琪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070105 kangqi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 行业走势图 (12) (3) 7 17 26 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 Mar-26 (%) 公用事业 环保 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 王玮嘉 研究员 SAC No. S0570517050002 wangweijia@htsc.com SFC No. BEB090 黄波 研究员 SAC No. S0570519090003 SFC No. BQR122 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资评级 | | 龙净环保 | 600 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月23日 2026年03月24日 公用环保 202603 第 4 期 优于大市 辽宁建立核电可持续发展价格结算机制，2026 年 1-2 月份全社会用电量同比增 长 6.1% 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数下跌 2.19%，公用事业指数下跌 2.35%，环 保指数下跌 5.59%，周相对收益率分别为-0.17%和-3.41%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 4 和第 23 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电下跌 1.78%；水电下跌 0.85%，新能源发电下跌 1.39%； 水务板块下跌 3.70%；燃气板块下跌 1.42%。 重要事件：辽宁发改委印发《关于 2026 年辽宁省核电机组参与电力市场化 交易有关事项的通知》。辽宁发改委印发《关于 2026 年辽宁省核电机组 参与电力市场化交易有关事项的通知》，提出通过建立核电可持续发展 价格结算机制，推动核电机组平稳入市。具体而言，核电参与市场交易 后，在市场外建立差价结算机制，差价结算费用暂纳入系统运行费用， 专题研究：主要碳排放国家减排政策梳理。世界主流大国对碳减排的态度各 异，呈现出差异化发展态势。 ...

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com ⚫ 电力： 1~2 月水电发电增速显著，第二产业拉动用电增长。2026 年 1-2 月发电量 15718 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.1%，其中火力发电 10539 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.3%；水 力发电 1560 亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.8%。总体而言，1-2 月份规上工业火电由降转增， 水电增速加快，核电、风电、太阳能发电增速放缓。2026 年初发电量与增速同比提升， 主要是因为上年同期基数较低。而且阶段性气温因素，1-2 月的冷暖波动较大带动采暖负 荷上升，提升电力需求的强度。电力生产由 2025 年初的低位逐步恢复到正常增速区间。 2026 年 1-2 月全社会用电量 16546 亿 ...

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 23 日 1-2 月发用电开局良好 中东局势升 级欧亚气价上涨 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(26/3/16~26/3/20) 行 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 公用事业 ⚫ 电力： 1~2 月水电发电增速显著，第二产业拉动用电增长。2026 年 1-2 月发电量 15718 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.1%，其中火力发电 10539 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.3%；水 力发电 1560 亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.8%。总体而言，1-2 月份规上工业火电由降转增， 水电增速加快，核电、风电、太阳能发电增速放缓。 ...

证券研究报告 公用环保 核电机制托底提前确立中国绿电电价拐点 ——中国电价上涨系列 II 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 22 日│中国内地 专题研究 发电 增持 (维持) 环保工程及服务 增持 (维持) SAC No. S0570523050003 SFC No. BTC420 黄波 研究员 SAC No. S0570519090003 SFC No. BQR122 康琪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070105 kangqi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 行业走势图 王玮嘉 研究员 SAC No. S0570517050002 SFC No. BEB090 wangweijia@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2079 李雅琳 研究员 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资评级 | | 龙净环保 | 600388 CH | 28.96 | 买入 | | 福能股份 | 600483 CH | 15.47 | 买入 | | 华润电力 | 836 HK ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [6][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights China's commitment to sustainable energy development through its participation in the "Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration," which aims to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 [2][15]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines significant goals for the public utility and environmental sectors, including a 25% share of non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 and a reduction of carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 17% over five years [17][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.19%, while the public utility index increased by 3.07% and the environmental index by 0.79%, with respective relative returns of 2.88% and 0.60% [1][14]. - Within the electricity sector, new energy generation surged by 10.84%, while thermal and hydroelectric power saw increases of 1.97% and 1.58%, respectively [1][25]. Important Events - China joined the "Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration" at the second Nuclear Energy Summit in Paris, emphasizing international cooperation for sustainable nuclear energy development [2][15]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading new energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy, due to supportive national policies for renewable energy [4][22]. - The report suggests focusing on stable dividend-paying hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power and companies involved in gas trading like Jiufeng Energy [4][22]. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Huadian International (600027.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and a PE ratio of 10.8 [8]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) is also rated "Outperform," with an EPS forecast of 0.75 for 2024 and a PE of 24.3 [8]. - Recommendations extend to environmental firms like China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings, which are seen as stable investment opportunities [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical tensions persist, and concerns about inflation have led to a decline in US Treasuries. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen significantly, with the 2 - year yield rising more, reflecting concerns about limited Fed rate - cut space due to rising inflation expectations. The situation's uncertainty remains high, and the duration of the Holmuiz Strait's navigation restrictions is crucial [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks, with the Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index falling 0.5% last week [1][3]. - In the on - shore market, the yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds have risen. Factors such as improved inflation expectations, good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and reduced expectations of future monetary policy easing have jointly promoted the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [1][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Off - shore Market - There were 3 new issuances of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds exceeding $100 million last week, totaling $1.45 billion, mainly financial bonds; about 17.5 billion RMB of off - shore RMB bonds were newly issued, also mainly financial bonds [2]. - The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries rose 14 and 16 basis points respectively to 4.28% and 3.72% last week, mainly due to market concerns about potential inflation problems caused by the continuous high oil price [1][2]. - Key - term US Treasuries have fully reversed all their gains this year. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen 11 and 24 basis points respectively compared to the end of 2025 [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks. The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index fell 0.5% last week, and the spread narrowed by 2 basis points. Among them, the high - rating index fell 0.5%, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points; the high - yield index fell 0.4%, and the spread widened by 3 basis points [1][3]. On - shore Market - The People's Bank of China net - withdrew 10.11 billion RMB of short - term liquidity through reverse repurchase operations last week, and inter - bank funding rates rebounded. The weighted average interest rates of 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase and 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase rose 5 and 1 basis points respectively to 1.46% and 1.50% [4]. - The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds rose 1 and 3 basis points respectively to 1.37% and 1.81% last week [4]. - February's inflation data showed improved price pressure, and the continuous geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, improving market expectations of subsequent inflation. The macro data from January to February showed good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and although retail data was still weak, it was better than market expectations. Coupled with the guidance of the People's Bank of China, market expectations of future monetary policy easing have weakened, jointly promoting the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [4]. Recent Newly Issued Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - Beijing Construction Engineering (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. issued bonds with a coupon rate of 4.10%, an issue amount of $300 million, and a maturity date of March 19, 2029 [5]. Appendix: List of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The appendix provides a detailed list of various Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, including information such as the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issue amount, maturity date, and ratings from Moody's, S&P, and Fitch [17][19][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental protection sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for these industries [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on the construction of a new energy system, emphasizing the integration of various energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power [3][6]. - It notes the recent slight decline in global gas prices due to geopolitical tensions affecting LNG supply, particularly from Qatar, while also mentioning the stable domestic supply in the U.S. [14][20]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas companies, reflecting a diversified approach to energy investments [12][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, promoting non-fossil energy sources and setting ambitious installation targets for nuclear, offshore wind, and pumped storage by 2030 [3][7]. - The plan aims to enhance the efficiency and resilience of the power system, optimize energy flow, and accelerate the development of smart grids and new energy storage solutions [6][8]. 2. Gas - The report discusses the impact of ongoing Middle Eastern tensions on global gas prices, with specific price data indicating fluctuations in various markets, including a 10.27% increase in U.S. Henry Hub spot prices [14][15]. - It highlights the current state of LNG prices in Northeast Asia, which have decreased by 13.33% recently, while also noting the overall supply constraints due to geopolitical factors [28][32]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and environmental sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the reporting period, while the gas sector lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report mentions recent developments in energy safety and the approval of new energy storage projects in Inner Mongolia, indicating ongoing investments in energy infrastructure [39][42]. - It also highlights significant projects such as the completion of the first unit of the "Hualong One" nuclear power plant in Zhejiang, marking a milestone in China's nuclear energy development [45][46].