双周政策分析简报（第十六期）丨对等关税对民营企业、中小企业影响及建议

Core Viewpoint - The "reciprocal tariff policy" proposed by Trump is expected to significantly impact China's private and small to medium-sized enterprises, leading to increased operational costs, reduced overseas orders, and potential job losses due to industry chain shifts [1][3][4] Group 1: Impact on Enterprises - High tariffs will increase operational costs for companies, leading to a substantial reduction in overseas orders and potential relocation of industry chains, which may result in employment and livelihood issues [1][3] - Companies are advised to diversify their sales channels, enhance product quality, and increase research and development efforts to turn challenges into opportunities [1][3][4] - The impact of the tariff policy is expected to be particularly severe on small and medium-sized enterprises, which may struggle to adapt quickly [12][13] Group 2: Government Recommendations - Government should implement targeted policies for affected industries and regions, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach [1][6] - Specific measures include developing domestic markets, boosting consumption, and providing tax relief and export tax rebates to support enterprises [1][5][6] - Local governments are encouraged to facilitate connections between export companies and non-U.S. markets [5][6] Group 3: Industry Responses - Many companies are exploring market diversification, with plans to enter emerging markets such as ASEAN, Europe, and Latin America [3][4] - A significant number of businesses are considering shifting from export to domestic sales or exploring other overseas markets due to increased tariff burdens [4][5] - The overall sentiment among businesses is cautiously optimistic, with many already adjusting their operational strategies in response to the tariff changes [4][5] Group 4: Economic Projections - The tariff policy is estimated to impact China's GDP by approximately 1.6 percentage points, with significant effects on employment, particularly in export-oriented sectors [7][11] - The potential loss of 6 to 8 million jobs is anticipated due to the ripple effects of reduced exports [7][11] - The long-term trend indicates a shift towards de-coupling between the U.S. and China, necessitating a focus on domestic consumption and resilience in supply chains [13][14]