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极端气候下,地质灾害防范应综合施策 ——访中国工程院院士、自然资源部地质灾害技术指导中心首席科学家殷跃平
Zhong Guo Zi Ran Zi Yuan Bao·2025-05-12 01:57

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing challenges posed by geological disasters due to extreme weather events driven by global climate change, emphasizing the need for improved identification and management of geological disaster risks in China [1]. Group 1: Geological Disaster Identification and Challenges - Identifying geological disaster risk points is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation, with significant advancements in investigation methods since the 1990s, including the use of satellite remote sensing and drones [2]. - The number of geological disaster risk points in China is approximately 284,000, with over 1.8 million recorded risk slopes due to human activities [2]. - The shift towards smaller-scale geological disasters (under 100,000 cubic meters) has increased the difficulty of accurate identification, as 95% of recent geological disasters fall into this category [4]. Group 2: New Problems in Extreme Weather Conditions - The emergence of small-scale disasters has made it harder to identify risks, as traditional methods focused on larger disaster bodies [4]. - The dynamics of disaster occurrence have changed, with remote disaster patterns becoming more common, as seen in recent incidents where landslides transformed into debris flows, affecting areas far from the original slide [4][5]. - The identification of unknown risk sources has become critical, as extreme rainfall can destabilize previously stable slopes, leading to widespread small-scale disasters [5][6]. Group 3: Monitoring and Early Warning Systems - The monitoring and early warning systems have improved significantly, with 66,000 geological disaster risk points equipped with monitoring instruments since the 14th Five-Year Plan [8]. - Despite advancements, challenges remain in monitoring due to the complex environments of rural mountainous areas, where existing instruments may not provide timely warnings [9]. - The need for specialized monitoring and early warning systems for high-risk areas, particularly in western mountainous regions, is emphasized to address the limitations of current technologies [10]. Group 4: Comprehensive Disaster Prevention and Mitigation - The expansion of human engineering activities in mountainous areas has increased the potential risks of geological disasters, necessitating a combination of monitoring, evaluation, and engineering solutions [11]. - Recommendations include enhancing geological safety risk assessments in rural land use planning and implementing simple mitigation measures for construction activities [11]. - A scientific approach is essential for balancing national energy security with environmental safety, advocating for precise investigations and appropriate engineering interventions [11].