WLY(SZ:000858) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-12 02:41Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye's performance in 2024 shows a significant slowdown, with revenue growth at approximately 7% and net profit growth at about 5%, marking the lowest growth rates since 2016, raising investor concerns [1][5][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Wuliangye's revenue reached approximately 89.18 billion yuan, a 7.09% increase from 2023, while net profit was about 31.85 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year [8][10]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities decreased by approximately 18.69% to about 33.94 billion yuan [30][31]. - The production capacity utilization rate fell to 62% in 2024, down from 68% in 2023, indicating inefficiencies in production [31][32]. Market Position and Competition - Wuliangye's reliance on high-end products and a lack of strong mid-range offerings have made it vulnerable in a competitive market, particularly against brands like Moutai and Guojiao 1573 [13][17][25]. - The company faced significant competition in the 1,000 yuan price range, with rival products like Moutai 1935 and Guojiao 1573 gaining market share [16][22]. Strategic Challenges - Despite efforts to control supply and stabilize prices, Wuliangye's inventory levels increased by 39% to 6,173 tons by the end of 2024, indicating ongoing challenges in managing stock [33][34]. - The company has shifted its growth target from double-digit increases to aligning with macroeconomic indicators, reflecting a more cautious approach in a challenging market environment [41][42]. Management and Future Outlook - Recent management changes, including the appointment of a new general manager, suggest a potential shift in strategy as the company navigates its current challenges [40][44]. - Wuliangye's ambitious "1 billion yuan revenue target" set by its chairman is now in question, as achieving a 12% growth rate in 2025 appears increasingly difficult [44][46].