2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-05-12 02:40Core Insights - The competition in the GLP-1 market is intensifying, with Eli Lilly's tirzepatide outperforming Novo Nordisk's semaglutide in key weight loss metrics [1][2] - The global GLP-1 market is expected to undergo significant restructuring, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk projected to capture over 80% of the market share in the next two years [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - By 2030, over 2.9 billion adults globally are expected to be overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m²), with over 65.3% of Chinese adults projected to be overweight or obese [3] - The obesity treatment market is primarily driven by lifestyle interventions, anti-obesity medications, and metabolic surgery, with medications becoming increasingly important [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Eli Lilly reported Q1 2025 revenue of $12.729 billion, a 45% year-over-year increase, with tirzepatide contributing $6.15 billion, accounting for approximately 48% of total revenue [4] - Novo Nordisk's Q1 2025 revenue was 78.087 billion Danish Krone (approximately $11.216 billion), a year-over-year increase of 18%, with semaglutide generating $8.011 billion [4] Group 3: Clinical Trials and Research - The SURMOUNT-5 trial demonstrated that tirzepatide led to an average weight loss of 20.2% compared to 13.7% for semaglutide, with a significant difference in waist circumference reduction [1][8] - The trial included approximately 751 participants and aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of tirzepatide versus semaglutide in overweight adults with at least one comorbidity [8] Group 4: Future Market Projections - The global GLP-1 market is expected to exceed $60 billion by 2025, with a potential increase to $80 billion or more by 2030 [5][6] - The competition is shifting from weight loss to comprehensive management of metabolic syndromes, with both companies expanding their research into related health conditions [7][8] Group 5: Competitive Strategies - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are adopting strategies such as differentiated approaches and supply chain integration to compete in the GLP-1 market [9] - The success of local companies will depend on their ability to innovate while ensuring safety and cost-effectiveness in their products [9]