特朗普的“心腹大患”：股市回来了，债券并没有

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock and bond markets are showing a divergence in response to recent trade policy announcements, with the stock market recovering while the bond market remains cautious and uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has recorded gains on 15 out of the last 22 trading days, returning to levels seen before the tariff announcements in April [2]. - This rebound occurred despite President Trump's retention of a 10% tariff on most countries, with limited progress in trade negotiations aside from agreements with the UK and meetings with Chinese officials [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased from a peak of 4.492% in April to 4.406% recently, but remains above the pre-tariff level of 4.156% [2][5]. - The persistent high yield indicates that the bond market is still processing uncertainties related to tariff policies, fiscal outlook, and Federal Reserve expectations [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are demanding higher yields due to inflation uncertainties stemming from fluctuating trade policies, leading to a current term premium of 0.69%, significantly higher than the March average of 0.37% [6][8]. - Concerns over increased bond supply due to federal budget deficits and criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are contributing to investor hesitance in purchasing long-term Treasuries [11]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The unusual phenomenon of rising long-term yields alongside falling short-term yields, termed "steepening inversion," poses challenges for policymakers and increases consumer borrowing costs [12]. - The disconnect between long-term yields and short-term interest rate expectations may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to stimulate growth through rate cuts, with mortgage rates remaining high despite potential rate reductions [15].