债市预期大逆转！期权交易员加大押注一个可能性：美联储今年都不降息

Group 1 - The market is beginning to accept Powell's message that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to lower interest rates, with traders betting on a reduction of less than 75 basis points by 2025 and the first rate cut expected in July [1] - Wall Street predictions for interest rate cuts this year range from 0 to 125 basis points, highlighting significant uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy path [2] - The bond market is adjusting to the reality that inflation may be higher than initially expected, complicating investor beliefs that the Fed will intervene and cut rates [2] Group 2 - Institutional investors are shifting strategies, favoring 5 to 7-year U.S. Treasury bonds as the Fed is unlikely to aggressively cut rates [3] - The upcoming consumer price index data is being closely monitored, with expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase in April, which could lead to a shift in market sentiment [3] - Powell's comments indicate that the Fed needs more information before taking action, particularly regarding the potential impacts of tariff policies on inflation and growth [3]