瑞郎涨势太猛！经济学家预计瑞士央行或于6月重返“零利率”时代

Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0% in the upcoming policy meeting on June 19, returning to the level seen in September 2022 when the "zero interest rate" era ended [1] - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the US dollar and is close to its highest level against the euro, driven by capital fleeing US assets amid increased tariffs announced by President Trump [4] - The SNB is moving towards a zero interest rate policy to prevent further appreciation of the Swiss franc, which could lower domestic inflation and harm exports, negatively impacting economic growth [4] Group 2 - Among 20 forecasters, only one economist predicts a 50 basis point cut to -0.25% in June, while most expect a cut to -0.25% in September, indicating a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle in June [5] - The average inflation rate forecast for Switzerland in 2025 is 0.4%, aligning with the SNB's recent predictions, providing some comfort to policymakers [5] - Economic growth for Switzerland is projected at 1.1% for this year, with growth rates of 1.4% and 1.6% expected for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating no significant slowdown in economic activity [5]