开源证券：稳健红利底色+复苏预期下银行业估值修复

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the banking sector is expected to stabilize in performance by 2025, with revenue and net profit growth gradually recovering, driven by stable dividend strategies and supportive growth policies [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Q1 Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, listed banks experienced a slight pressure on performance, with revenue showing a year-on-year decline of 1.72%, compared to a growth of 0.08% in 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders also saw a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%, down from a growth of 2.35% in 2024 [2]. - Revenue growth varied by bank type: state-owned banks at -1.51%, joint-stock banks at -3.91%, city commercial banks at +2.96%, and rural commercial banks at +0.21% [2]. - Net profit growth by bank type was: state-owned banks at -2.90%, joint-stock banks at -2.05%, city commercial banks at +5.49%, and rural commercial banks at +4.77% [2]. Group 2: Revenue Structure and Challenges - The income structure reflects a "volume-price balance" as a key theme, with net interest income growth marginally improving for all bank types except state-owned banks [2]. - Non-interest income remains weak overall, although wealth management sales have shown significant growth [2]. - The contribution of financial investment performance is expected to increase in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing reduced impact from the bond market [2]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Credit Trends - The credit quality of banks is showing improvement, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at 1.23% in Q1 2025, a slight decrease from the end of 2024 [3]. - The NPL ratio for corporate loans decreased to 1.32%, improving by 20 basis points from 2023, particularly in the real estate sector [3]. - Retail NPLs increased to 1.13%, marking a 25 basis point rise compared to 2023, continuing a three-year upward trend [3]. - The overall credit cost for listed banks is at a historical low of 0.65%, with state-owned banks at 0.50% [3].