“贸易战”下的美国经济：内需依然保持强劲

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first quarterly negative growth since 2022, significantly lower than the 2.4% growth in Q4 2024 [3] - However, the actual GDP showed a year-on-year growth of 2% after seasonal adjustments, indicating that the economic fundamentals have not deteriorated significantly [3] Trade and Imports - A major factor contributing to the economic slowdown was a significant increase in imports, which rose by 50.9% in Q1 as businesses sought to avoid tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leading to a trade deficit of $318.5 billion [4] - The "net exports" negatively impacted GDP by 4.83 percentage points, the largest single-quarter drag since 1947 [4] Domestic Demand - Domestic consumption and investment remained strong, with personal consumption expenditures increasing by 1.8% year-on-year, contributing 1.21 percentage points to economic growth [5] - Core consumption, excluding energy and food, grew by 3.5%, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending [5] - Private investment also saw a counter-cyclical growth, with non-residential investment increasing by 9.8%, and equipment investment surging by 22.5%, driven by computers and industrial equipment [5] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed improvement, decreasing from 3.0% at the beginning of the year to 2.4% in Q1, primarily due to falling energy prices [6] - Employment figures remained stable, with an average monthly increase of 174,000 non-farm jobs and an unemployment rate steady between 4.0% and 4.2% [6] Future Outlook - If trade negotiations with China and other countries progress positively in Q2, the negative impact of imports on the economy may significantly diminish, potentially leading to a strong economic rebound [7]