涨势已近尾声？持续上涨的黄金“避风港”地位面临考验｜封面头条

Core Viewpoint - The recent positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and the easing of geopolitical tensions have led to a decline in global risk aversion, resulting in a significant drop in gold prices [1][2]. Market Performance - On May 12, spot gold prices fell below $3260 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 2%. COMEX gold futures also saw a drop of 2.11%, trading at $3273.60 per ounce [1]. - London gold opened lower, with a decline of over 1%, eventually dropping to $3246 per ounce, continuing a volatile trend [2]. - The A-share market's strong performance contrasted with the decline in the precious metals sector, where companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining saw a drop of over 6% [2]. Investment Trends - Gold has outperformed stocks in recent years, with gold ETFs rising by 109% since 2020, compared to a 74% increase in the S&P 500 index, marking a 35 percentage point lead [4]. - Despite the S&P 500's rebound of 17% since April, gold prices have continued to rise [4]. Central Bank Activities - Central banks in developed countries, including the US, Japan, and Germany, have seen their gold reserves increase in value by $600 billion, reaching $1.3 trillion. Emerging market central banks, such as those in China, India, and Brazil, have doubled their gold reserves to $800 billion [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts express differing views on gold's future trajectory, with some indicating that the current market may be in a consolidation phase due to reduced risk pricing. The potential for liquidity risks remains a concern [9]. - The rapid increase in gold prices since early 2025, which saw a 29.4% rise, may necessitate a correction as the market digests this information [9]. - Experts suggest that gold prices may stabilize or slightly decline based on current economic conditions and inflation levels, advising investors to allocate assets wisely [9][10].