保德信固定收益全球经济副主管Katharine Neiss答21：关税政策不确定性高悬，美国经济衰退风险显著攀升

Group 1 - The U.S. GDP is projected to shrink by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in Q1 2025, primarily due to a significant increase in imports and a record trade deficit [1] - The risk of recession in the U.S. economy is increasing, with a technical recession being declared if there is another contraction in Q2 [1] - Maintaining economic growth in 2024 is expected to be highly challenging, with previous growth driven by improvements in labor market participation, investment, and energy production [1] Group 2 - Uncertainty surrounding policies, particularly tariffs, is weakening market confidence, leading to delayed investment decisions that could suppress economic growth [2] - Concerns about unemployment, linked to government layoffs, may indirectly impact consumer spending despite the labor market not showing significant weakness [2] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key variable in mitigating recession risks [2]